History in the making

Thursday April 14, 2011

Analysis

By Joceline Tan

Sarawak politics will not be the same again after this election and the future of the Chinese is at the crossroads.

THE voice blaring through the loudspeaker sounded like Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and the crowd around the kopitiam in a suburb of Kuching was clapping and cheering away.

But there was no one at the rostrum under a large angsana tree. Anwar was far away in Sibu and the people there were watching a video of aceramah speech from a couple of nights ago.

The sound level was deafening and in between, they were entertained to a witty song about Tan Sri Taib Mahmud having to take on a hornbill aka the people. The song’s most popular line is Taib, jangan bebankan bumi kenyalang (Taib, don’t burden the land of the hornbills).

The crowd was waiting to catch a glimpse of See Chee How, the PKR candidate who is vying for Batu Lintang against Barisan Nasional’s Sih Hua Tong.

See is not a natural speaker but has a very honest face and made a name taking up controversial land cases against the Government together with his more famous law partner Baru Bian.

Sih, who is with the SUPP, used to be a political secretary to the Chief Minister, something which is now being held against him amid the anti-Taib sentiment.

There were actually more than half-a-dozen mounted loudspeakers blasting away that night – half belonging to PKR and the other half to the Barisan, which was having its own ceramah about 100m away.

It was like a contest of who could make more noise. Both sides were equally loud, although the crowd was definitely bigger on the PKR side.

But when word spread that MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek had arrived to speak at the Barisan side, part of the PKR crowd gravitated over to hear him.

As a result, Dr Chua found himself addressing a sizeable audience.

SUPP candidates are struggling on the Chinese ground because their party is seen as too subservient to the white-haired Taib whom the Chinese call Pa Mao.

Very few of them know how to respond to public opinion out there without appearing to be going against the leadership.

But Dr Chua is one of those Alpha males who does not pull any punches and had no qualms tackling the local Chinese sentiment.

His direct style startled the crowd: “I know all of you are angry with Pa Mao because 30 years is a long time. No one is perfect. No party is perfect. Umno is not perfect. Even myself, I am not perfect.”

He was basically acknowledging the frustrations of the Chinese after 30 years of Taib.

He said that was what happened when people overstayed their welcome and that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was spot-on when he noted that one should never overstay in politics.

But Dr Chua argued that, while Sarawakians had the right to vent their anger, the point was that Taib had said he was going after the polls.

The Opposition had admitted that they could not win enough seats to form the Government. Barisan will return to power and Taib would still be there.

He said Taib had promised in front of the Prime Minister that he was going and the voters should trust Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak on this.

As such, voting for the Opposition would only bring short-term satisfaction for the Chinese in Sarawak.

“This election is not only about Pa Mao but about the whole of Sarawak. What we are seeing is Chinese fighting Chinese. We should ask ourselves what we really want,” he said.

It was the first time that any Barisan leader had addressed the Chinese sentiment about Taib in such a direct manner or referred so openly to Taib as Pa Mao and it grabbed the attention of the crowd.

It is evident that the Chinese want SUPP leaders to speak out and address their core anger and unhappiness.

But what Dr Chua wanted to stress most was that the DAP’s alliance with PAS meant that giving more clout to DAP would only strengthen PAS’ long-term goal to form an Islamic state. He asked the Chinese to think this over before they go to vote.

Chinese feeling about Taib is deep-seated and even the independent candidate in Padungan, Dominique Ng, is exploiting the sentiment.

A huge billboard allegedly put up by him shows Taib and his beautiful wife on their wedding day as well as SUPP president Tan Sri Dr George Chan and his Michelle Yeoh-lookalike wife with the words Tian tian, mi miwhich means “sweet and lovely”. The message being pushed is that the top leaders lead a dream life while others are struggling.

The prospect of SUPP being wiped out by DAP is very real and the ruling party has been reduced to an underdog role in this election.

After SUPP lost eight seats in the 2006 election, they also lost the prestigious mayor’s post for Kuching South. This post was given to a government servant.

More defeats are in store on April 16 and this time according to insiders, SUPP may lose the deputy chief minister’s post currently held by its party president.

Chinese representation in the state government is on the line not because Taib or the Barisan wants to punish SUPP, but because the basis for representation will not be there.

There is a great deal at stake for the Chinese in Sarawak.

It has often been said that politics in the peninsula has not been the same since March 2008. Three years later, history is happening in Sarawak and journalists watching it unfold say, this election is the greatest fight that Sarawak has ever seen.

Barisan will recapture the state on April 16 and it is likely to retain its two-thirds majority. But Sarawak politics will never be the same again.

PAS suatu ancaman di Beting Maro?

Oleh: Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi

Pentas ceramah dan khalayak sudah hampir penuh. Khalayak pendengar ceramah politik sudah berkumpul. Mereka terdiri daripada beberapa pihak, iaitu segelincir daripada penyokong tegar Pakatan Rakyat, ada sebahagiannya pula mengakui belum pernah dan ingin melihat sendiri sosok pemimpin alternatif secara langsung, kecuali di media alternatif termasuk Youtube dan TV alternatif dalam portal berita di alam maya. Beberapa orang ditemui tersebut merupakan anak Sarawak dari kawasan Beting Maro.

Kelihatan Ketua pembangkang Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim persis gaya Soekarno menggunakan sepenuhnya platform ceramah untuk menangkis skandal terbaru dan mengaitkan dengan politik arus perdana dan politik di Sarawak. Bagi khalayak yang pertama kali menyaksikan Anwar sudah pasti terpukau dengan ucapan pedas dan tajam memberikan kepuasan kepada khalayak pendengar terdiri daripada generasi muda dan tua.

Kemudian dengan kesan dan momentum ceramah politik yang agak panas tersebut, giliran ketua Umum PAS yang dinanti-nantikan pun tiba. Bagi sebahagian besar khalayak, bukannya selalu berpeluang untuk menatap sendiri dan mendengar ceramah Tok Guru Nik Aziz. Mereka ingin mendengar secara langsung amanat pemimpin PAS nombor satu tersebut.

Namun ternyata kebanyakan yang hadir di situ amat kecewa. Ruang awam yang sangat panas yang dihujani oleh ucapan pedas Anwar Ibrahim menjadi sejuk, kaku dan senyap. Nik Aziz yang diharapkan menyampaikan ceramah pada ketika itu gagal menyempurnakan harapan tersebut. Sebaliknya Tok Guru tersebut cuma bertakbir, mengangkat doa sahaja dan selesai!

Tentulah bagi peminat politik semasa yang terlatih gaya PKR atau mana-mana politik lain selain PAS akan menganggap Nik Aziz gagal beraksi dalam ceramah politik itu, lantas mengecewakan mereka. Segelincir sahaja yang dapat membaca makna simbolik bertakbir dan berdoa yang jauh lebih tinggi daripada berhujah pejal dan bermain dengan kata-kata. Beberapa anak Sarawak dari Beting Maro yang ditemui itu menggeleng-geleng kepalanya apabila ditanya mengenai respon mereka terhadap tindakan Nik Aziz itu.

Adakah ini lambang kegagalan sebahagian besar rakyat di Sarawak memahami dasar politik PAS? Adakah PAS terlalu asing di Sarawak walaupun sudah bertapak 15 tahun? Sekurang-kurangnya, demikian persoalan, pengalaman dan kesan yang saya peroleh pada majlis tersebut.

Namun mengapakah hampir sebahagian besar pengundi khususnya di kawasan Beting Maro hampir memilih parti PAS pada pilihan raya 2006? Adakah isu personaliti memainkan peranan utama atau terdapat janji politik belum sempat ditunaikan? Sejauh manakah isu kemudahan asas- bekalan air bersih, jalan raya berturap, dan elektrik terus menyebabkan undi semacam berubah arah sebagai protes?

Rata-rata penyokong PAS bangga walaupun tewas kerana dapat mengurangkan majoriti kerusi milik BN tersebut dengan memperoleh 1,901 undi manakala manakala BN memperoleh 2,796 undi pada pilihan raya 2006. Dengan kata lain, sekitar 40 peratus undi beralih ke arah PAS. Majoriti 895 undi ini memberikan momentum kepada PAS untuk meneruskan agenda mereka.

Namun adakah ruang untuk parti PAS bertapak di Sarawak? Hakikatnya, pada pilihan raya lepas(2006) PAS cuma meletakkan satu kerusi sahaja, iaitu di Beting Maro manakala pada pilihan raya 2001, Pas pernah meletakkan calon di kawasan Saribas, Samariang dan Sadong Jaya yang kesemua tewas. Berdasarkan prestasi PAS dalam tempoh tersebut, tidaklah terlalu besar peluang parti tersebut untuk memenangi sebarang kerusi di Sarawak.

Dengan jumlah bumiputera Islam di Sarawak cuma sekitar 25 peratus sahaja ideologi PAS sukar dikembangkan di Sarawak. Kepelbagaian etnik menyebabkan rakyat di Sarawak menganggotai pelbagai parti yang terdiri daripada beberapa etnik. PBB misalnya mewakili masyarakat Iban, Melayu, Bidayuh, dan orang ulu. SUPP pula terdiri daripada etnik Cina dan Bidayuh. Apakah PAS terbuka untuk menerima penyertaan kepelbagaian etnik di Sarawak atau hanya layak menjadi ahli kelab penyokong PAS sahaja?

Isu ini adalah rumit untuk PAS bergerak ke akar umbi di Sarawak. Masyarakat bumiputera Islam kebanyakan lebih selesa dengan parti PBB yang dianggap berjaya membawa pembangunan di Sarawak. Lazimnya, golongan yang menyertai pembangkang lebih selesa dengan Parti Keadilan Rakyat.Tidak hairanlah PKR atau Keadilan sebelum itu lebih banyak meletakkan calon berbanding PAS.

Soalnya, mengapakah bumiputera Islam pro pembangkang lebih selesa menganggotai PKR berbanding PAS di Sarawak? Adakah mereka melihat hambatan pada masa akan datang dalam konteks realiti kepelbagaian etnik di Sarawak?

PAS bukan sahaja berhadapan dengan realiti jumlah bumiputera islam yang kecil di Sarawak. Umpama anak tiri ternyata DAP, PKR dan SNAP lebih dominan sedangkan PAS juga mempunyai peluang yang sama untuk memenangi pilihan raya sekurang-kurangnya satu kerusi kali ini kiranya mempelbagaikan strategi kempen mereka. Dalam perebutan kerusi untuk bertanding seolah- olah parti SNAP , DAP dan PKR terlalu dominan manakala suara PAS terus tenggelam dalam arus politik di Sarawak.

Barangkali disebabkan keterpinggiran PAS dalam kalangan parti pembangkang di Sarawak, parti tersebut akan cuba memulihkan imej dan dijangka cuba bertanding di lima kerusi kawasan bumiputera islam Muara Tuang, Sadong Jaya, Sebuyau, Tanjung Datu dan Beting Maro. Namun mahukah bumiputera islam di Sarawak mengalih arah kepada PAS sedangkan sebahagian besar daripada mereka kini nampaknya lebih selesa di bawah teraju utama PBB yang mempunyai peranan utama dalam parti dan kerajaan negeri Sarawak.

Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin sudah pasti tahu akan hal ini, sebab itu beliau menggesa agar menolak PAS yang menurutnya akan hanya membawa perpecahan kepada umat Islam di Sarawak. Adakah PAS pembawa perpecahan umat di Sarawak? Apakah pernyataan ini menggambarkan realiti dan suasana masyarakat bumiputera islam di Sarawak? Pastinya, apa-apa keputusan pilihan raya nanti akan mengubah landskap politik setempat.

*Penulis ialah pensyarah kanan di Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS). Dalam dunia kesarjanaan beliau pernah mendapat biayai Southeast Asian Studies Regional Exchange Program (SEASREP), Toyota Foundation selain daripada Mardjani Foundation Russia, ahli European Association for South East Asian Studies (EuroSEAS), dan anggota Scientific and Technical Committee & Editorial Review Board on Human and Social Sciences, di Paris.

Ayunan undi 20 peratus boleh ancam BN

Dr Jeniri Amir

Antara soalan yang kerap dikemukakan kepada saya sejak kebelakangan ini ialah mampukah Pakatan Rakyat menumbangkan Barisan Nasional (BN) dalam pilihan raya 16 April nanti? Kita tidak mempunyai Lampu Aladin atau teropong ajaib untuk benar-benar dapat meneka jumlah kerusi yang mampu dikuasai Pakatan Rakyat nanti. Jika blog dan komen tertentu di alam maya diteliti, sentimennya seolah-olah menggambarkan bahawa sudah tidak ada lagi masa depan untuk BN.

Hegemoni BN kekal

Hakikatnya, bagaimana? Ramai pemerhati meramalkan bahawa pembangkang tidak mungkin dapat menguasai dua per tiga daripada 71 kerusi Dewan Undangan Negeri Sarawak. Pengerusi DAP Sarawak Wong Ho Leng sendiri mengakui tidak mungkin bagi Pakatan Rakyat untuk meruntuhkan hegemoni atau kuasa BN. Hakikatnya, bagi memungkinkan Pakatan Rakyat menumbangkan BN, ia memerlukan sekurang-kurangnya 20 peratus ayunan undi, membabitkan 36 kerusi lagi.

Meskipun landsakap politik sudah jauh berubah terutama selepas pilihan raya negeri 2006 dan PRU-13, saya tidak menjangka bahawa akan berlaku tsunami politik dalam pilihan raya negeri ke-10 nanti. Belum terdapat resipi yang membolehkan kejutan berlaku. Sejak 1970, prestasi BN adalah sentiasa agak stabil dan membanggakan kecuali pada 1987.

Saiz kelas menengah masih kecil di negeri 2.5 juta jiwa ini, dua per tiga kerusi atau 56 kerusi terletak di luar bandar, media alternatif belum begitu meluas dan berpengaruh sehingga mampu membentuk perlakuan pengundian seluruh pengundi, dan politik pembangunan masih lagi relevan di kebanyakan kerusi. Banyak lagi faktor yang belum memihak kepada pembangkang.

Tun Abdul Rahman Yakub

Dalam pilihan raya pertama 1970 BN menguasai 23 daripada 48 kerusi dipertandingkan, 1974 sebanyak 30 kerusi, 1979 (45), 1983 (34) dan 1987 sebanyak 28 kerusi. Pilihan raya 1987 menyaksikan persaingan sengit antara BN dengan Kumpulan Maju pimpinan Tun Abdul Rahman Yakub. Kumpulan itu berjaya menguasai 20 kerusi, manakala BN 28 kerusi. Pilihan raya mengejut itu diadakan selepas tercetusnya peristiwa Ming Court di Kuala Lumpur.

Jumlah kerusi mulai bertambah kepada 56 dalam pilihan raya 1991 dan dalam pilihan raya itu BN menguasai 49 kerusi. Kemudian jumlah kerusi ditambah lagi menjadi 62 pada pilihan 1996. Dalam pilihan raya itu BN menguasai 57 kerusi manakala pembangkang hanya lima kerusi.

Pada pilihan raya 2001 pula, BN mengukuhkan kedudukannya apabila memenangi 60 kerusi, peningkatan tiga kerusi. Akhirnya, dalam pilihan raya kesembilan lalu, jumlah kerusi ditingkatkan menjadi 71. Daripada jumlah itu, sebanyak sembilan kerusi dimenangi pembangkang; iaitu DAP enam kerusi, PKR , SNAP dan Bebas masing-masingnya satu kerusi. Namun, kerusi Engkilili dimenangi Jhonichal Rayong Ngipa di bawah tiket SNAP akhirnya terlepas ke tangan SUPP apabila Jhonichal diterima menyertai parti tertua Sarawak itu.

Jika kita kaji pula peratusan undi dimenangi BN sejak 1970 hingga 2006, tentu kita dapat mengetahui trend pengundian dalam kalangan pengundi Sarawak. Berlaku peratusan pengundian turun naik yang menyokong BN dalam tempoh sekitar 40 tahun.

Ayunan undi beri impak

Bagaimanakah agaknya pola dan tingkah laku pengundian kali ini? Adakah sekitar 980,000, termasuk 310,000 pengundi muda akan memihak kepada BN? Atau akan berlaku ayunan undi yang besar terhadap pembangkang? Kita perlu sedar, hanya terdapat 12 kerusi marginal. Jika berlaku 10 peratus sahaja ayunan undi, ini bermakna 12 kerusi akan jatuh ke tangan pembangkang, membabitkan11 kerusi majoriti Cina, tujuh kerusi Dayak, dan tiga kerusi bumiputera Islam
Sejumlah 39 peratus undi sahaja dikuasai BN atau ketika itu Perikatan dalam pilihan raya 1970, sebelum mengukuh menjadi 55 peratus pada 1974. Sesudah itu, peningkatan berlaku selama dua penggal, iaitu 61.2 peratus pada pilihan raya 1979 dan 68.5 peratus (1983).

Tahun 1983 merupakan pilihan raya pertama selepas kuasa diserahkan kepada Ketua Menteri baharu, iaitu Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud pada 1981 oleh Tun Abdul Rahman Yakub. Tun Abdul Rahman mengambil alih kuasa daripada Datuk Tawi Sli, dan memerintah Sarawak dari 1970 hingga 25 Mac 1981.Kebiasaannya, peratusan sokongan atau populariti BN meningkat selepas kuasa berpindah tangan. Adakah hal yang serupa akan berlaku selepas Taib berundur nanti?

Persaingan sengit 1987

Persaingan sengit dalam tahun 1987 menyebabkan peratusan undi dikuasai BN merosot kepada 55.2 peratus, sebelum mengukuh semula kepada 62.8 peratus pada pilihan raya keenam pada 1991. Terdapat peningkatan yang ketara selama dua penggal, iaitu 66.6 peratus pada 1996, dan mengukuh lagi kepada 71.2 peratus pada 2001. Namun angka itu meroasot kepada 62.9 peratus dalam pilihan raya lalu.

Adakah peratusan sokongan terhadap BN akan meningkat atau merosot pada 16 April nanti?

Antara kesinambungan dan perubahan, yang mana satukah pengundi akan lakukan? Memang akan berlaku perubahan, tetapi perubahan itu tidak akan sampai menggugat penguasaan majoriti dua per tiga kerusi DUN dikuasai BN kini. Hakikatunya, kesinambungan penguasaan BN akan terus berlaku.

*Penulis ialah penganalisis politik di Universiti Malaysia Sarawak

Nik Aziz's outlandish edicts

Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat’s edicts in the 1990s on female appearances reflect the mentality of oppressive worlds.

Azmi Anshar


In the 20 years he has been in power, Pas spiritual leader and Kelantan Menteri Besar Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat has made a series of unusual if not provocative edicts, particularly on how women should dress or behave. But it is his propensity to make them without the blessings of DAP and PKR that had compelled Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to reprimand him. AZMI ANSHAR takes a look at 
Nik Aziz’s pronouncements over the years

SOON after taking over as Kelantan mentri besar in 1990, Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat immediately issued a series of public pronouncements, but none more provocative than the ones that seemingly denuded women of their long-held rights to dress, appear and behave as they always had in Malaysia.

Women activists protested hard, smarting from Nik Aziz's divinatory diktats. But in Kelantan, his pronouncements soon morphed into startling statutes severely limiting a woman's statuesque -- no lipstick, no perfume, no showing of hair and no Western-styled dressing. In short, no demonstration of beauty.

At least for Muslim women, no interaction, socially or otherwise even in public places, if the opposite sex is not the immediate family.

The Pas-led Kelantan government soon made the no-interaction decree official when separate gender lines, once the norm in Pas ceramah and assemblies, were instituted at separate check-out lines in supermarkets. (These days, the edict appears to be just in name).

Nik Aziz's rationale harbours on the distress that it does to "pious" Muslim men: they seem to suffer sleepless nights and cannot pray properly, distracted by public feminine flauntings.

He describes the men's dilemma as "emotional abuse", just as disturbing as abuse of children and wives in households but less seen and no less subtle.

For Kelantanese women, Nik Aziz's early-1990s edicts seem incongruous: they have been an accepted fact for generations that Kelantanese Malay women are enterprising, their lot in the trading markets and shophouses dotting the streets of Kota Baru, and running small- and medium-sized companies, a testament to their intelligence and practicality.

The Nik Aziz edicts, however, are in reality the prologue to Pas' zeal to push the Islamic card harder than the Umno-led Barisan Nasional government ever could.

The only ones upset with Pas' steamrolling ways were Muslims in Kelantan. The steadfast Muslims among Umno supporters grudgingly appreciate the legitimacy in what Pas is asserting.

This probably explains why Pas' religious card remains a political dominant in Kelantan, clinging on votes from erstwhile Umno adherents to maintain its electoral grip.

Nonetheless, the non-Muslims are only too happy that the Pas government has not trampled on the rights of their women or to enjoy their favourite brew.

Now, to the dismay of the Chinese community and Pas' political partners, DAP and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), even legalised gambling has been deprived, the justification being that it is enforcement of a longstanding prohibition.

While DAP's Karpal Singh thundered that the ban violated the rights enshrined in the Federal Constitution and laws, opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim decided on a little bit of circumspection, issuing a little reprimand to Nik Aziz, urging the menteri besar to at least discuss with the other two parties before embarking on changes to major regulations.

For Nik Aziz, as long as political intrigue and scheming defer to his spiritual terms and reference and that of his hardliners, he will administer things much within his own little spaced-out world, an ambit that is "different" and "above" the inclusiveness of DAP and PKR.

Which makes Anwar's job tougher, especially when his own credibility and numbers are dwindling (poor turnout during his by-election ceramah and Sodomy II trial that party stalwarts were forced to carry out shift duties to rally the troops).

Anwar is the glue that weaves the three parties together and that is the rub: Pas, Nik Aziz by demonstration, seems resentful of that fact, in private at least, because in public, they make a big show of comradeship and togetherness.

Perhaps this is the price the opposition coalition has to pay for remaining reticent to Nik Aziz's somewhat obsession at making sexist edicts. Will Nik Aziz be the awkward free spirit who will unglue the partnership?

Nik Aziz's edicts in the 1990s on female appearances reflect the mentality of oppressive worlds where women play secondary and subservient, even slavish, roles.

While Muslim women have, by peer pressure or by their own code of modesty, already begun wearing headscarves by the droves and worn less revealing clothing, following the government's Islamisation process from the mid-1980s, their sensibilities would not allow them to give up their savvy fashion sense, cosmetics and, most importantly, right to upward mobility and breaking the glass ceiling to become social, corporate and political leaders.

In doing so, women in Malaysia have also become leaders of men, many of whom have readily accepted the subordinate role but some of whom despise it.

After the March 8, 2008 electoral gains, women -- to the horror of some -- are playing a bigger role.

So, how does Nik Aziz deal with Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail or other DAP and PKR women leaders who sit and stand equidistantly with the other men in Pas without Nik Aziz tripping on his female chastity-designed edicts?

Conversely, the 80-year-old Pas spiritual guru may think that women in Malaysia have overstepped their ascendancy, more after getting a handful of criticism that branded him as a "cult leader" similar to renegade cult leader Ayah Pin, no less from a woman.

In doing so, Farahana Jamaludin, director of the relatively-new outfit Malaysian Malays Network, unnerved and ignited the fury of the male-dominated Pas legionnaires who lambasted her perhaps more venomously than had she been a man.

Notably, former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad blasted Nik Aziz in three postings in his popular Che Det blog for spiritual hypocrisy.

Such is the venom against her "impudence" that she has received the ultimate accolade -- the Facebook profile "Farahana Jamaludin Wajib Minta Maaf Dengan Tok Guru Nik Aziz", dedicated to the demand that she must apologise to Nik Aziz.

After all those years of dictating a women's fortitude, the Pas legionnaires, in deifying Nik Aziz as pure and virtuous despite his obvious sputtering ways, cannot accept that the spiritual leader is humanly liable for criticisms, more so if the disparagement comes from a woman.

Twenty years on, Nik Aziz and his fanatical followers may still privately hold views that a woman cannot be allowed to govern or lead, much less dress or behave in the Malaysian way.

However, it seems that this kind of thinking is, providentially, confined to his Kelantan enclave because in the national platform, it has no bearing and is somewhat irrelevant and politically incorrect.

Once Pas pitted women as leaders in successfully fielding Dr Lo' Lo' Ghazali at the Titiwangsa parliamentary constituency in the 2008 general election and Normala Sudirman, who lost to BN in the Jan 27 Tenang by-election, Nik Aziz may be seen as licking his own spittle.

Of course, the irony would be that there is an exception to his edict: a woman leader is acceptable as long as she is an equal political partner who can help leverage Pas' electoral ambitions.

That is telling of Nik Aziz's chameleonic stand on securing political advantages, which means underneath the mullah garment is an astute politician who, wherever it is possible, still understands political machinations even if it means violating the grain of his sermons.

mishar@nst.com.my

Read more: Nik Aziz's outlandish edicts http://www.nst.com.my/nst/articles/10azizi/Article/#ixzz1H6P0Ycca

After Kerdau-Merlimau, reform or revolt?

Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad

I am fully conscious of how the BN’s mainstream media (MSM) would demonise and ostracise me for what I am about to say. I am nonetheless going to say it in simple and unequivocal term. Simply put, if I were to call the shot in N28 Kerdau by-election, I would want my party to boycott the election. Period. The BN’s MSM would then have a field day in making PAS their punching bag and would go to town for weeks on end on this huge political meal. They would be apparently vindicated for all their claims that the opposition is bankrupt of ideas and issues to fight them on any further political contestation. On the back of the looming 13th General Election (GE) coming ever closer, the decision to boycott would arguably be a political suicide for PAS and the Pakatan. Political analysts might argue that the opposition has finally succumbed to the psychological war of the BN’s ‘propagandist firepower’. It doesn’t take a pundit to tell you that. That is the usual ‘in-the-box-kind-of-thinking’ that invariably ends up in political parties quite unwilling to brace drastic unconventional ideas and maneuvers. That’s the thinking that underpins the predictable decision of most political parties of whatever ideological persuasions in the face of challenging situation. What’s my rationale for proposing this drastic action? Am I already conceding defeat on the 11th hours? Am I now perceived as mitigating the adverse impact of another PAS’ defeat? Say what you like. I have been part of the strategic teams of many a by-election especially after the 12th GE. Some we have won and others we lost. The sweetest victory was of course Kuala Terengganu and the more bitter defeat was Galas. On both occasions power changed hands. Kerdau's finishing line Quite contrary to the idea of running from defeat, I have a strange feeling that Kerdau is fast making me upbeat especially towards its finishing line. I am not commenting on Merlimau as I am not aware of the realities on ‘ground-zero’ in that BN’s state of Melaka. Let me say it again. I’m not looking for an upset in Kerdau but is seriously hoping for a reduction of the majority the BN’s candidate secured in the last GE. I’m not being wishful but given our campaign ‘blitz’ which put the Pahang’s MB defenceless to the finishing line, this writer is hardly surprised if the voters so decide to protest against Umno/BN’s decades of malaise and negligence as to give PAS a victory. No one in his right frame of mind would miss noticing that Kerdau is a ‘cowboy’ town. After 53 years Kerdau has never got on to be in the radar of development. It’s the PM’s home state mind you. So simply said again, I’m not running from defeat. However, this piece is at best purely academic as far as a boycott is concerned, as polling is well underway for both Merlimau and Kerdau, before this writer could publish or upload this piece. But I felt the compelling need to say and share it with the entire nation, before the results are announced this evening. I’m dead serious. If anything this piece and the likes of this writing, if widely enough read and disseminated, could very well be the genesis of a pending ‘national revolt’, not quite like the middle-eastern turmoil now on world stage that Najib dreaded. 'Electoral Authoritarianism’ But strangely quite alike though, as it will also represent the utter disdain and hatred of the rakyat or the citizens, for what is here now dubbed in “Political Science” as an ‘Electoral Authoritarianism’ (EA). Malaysia is now listed as one by the author of ‘The Logics of Electoral Authoritarianism”, Professor Andres Schedler (2006). Simply defined, EA is how government abuse power as to distort and contain a true electoral competition and denies and subverts a free and fair election. In the eyes of an enlarging enlightened sections of the Malaysian electorates and citizenry, Malaysia is indeed guilty of perpetuating ‘electoral authoritarianism’ with impunity. For that, Najib and his cohorts please take note! If Najib truly wants to put the “Ben-Ali-Mubaarak-Gaddafi-type Revolt” at bay in our beloved land of Malaysia, act urgently to redress and reform the many excesses and sins on ‘electoral authoritarianism’ that has continued unabated for far too long in this country! My arguments, with respect to a boycott call on Kerdau by-election, is essentially premised on, but not limited to the following basis and evidences. 1.Najib's now infamous saying, “We don’t buy votes, but if you support us we can increase your allocation tomorrow or later. But show support for Barisan Nasional first”. Now that could only equal to his atrocious words of “You help me, I help you” in Sibu ie his promise of delivering RM5 million on Monday if Robert Lau wins on Sunday now is iconised as the ultimate of ‘vote-buying’ in the lexicology of our local EA. If that is not votebuting, what is? 2.Najib began as early as on the second day of the campaign period to blitz Kerdau with ‘goodies’ and handouts as follows: RM400,000 for a hall in Kampong Seri Kerdau, RM150,000 for a Balai Bomba, RM100,000 for Hindu Temple and RM9.25millions on a water treatment plant in Batu Sawar. That’s a hefty RM10.4million, well exceeding the constituency budget allocation. Where are funds coming from? Umno’s coffers or cronies’ or rakyats’? 3.Abuse of usage of public premises for party political campaign listed below: i. Public Field in Teluk Sentang, ii. Mosques and Schools in Batu Sawar, iii. Community Hall in Jengka 23 Felda, iv. Broadband Centre for Jengka 25 v. Community Hall in Kuala Tekal vi. Kerdau’s Felda’s office. 4.Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Ahmad Maslan’s announcement that the federal government will settle the CESS payment of RM13,000 for each settler in Jengka 22 next Monday is a surely a covert inducement for settlers to vote for BN come polling day for the Kerdau by-election on Sunday. (Cess payments are monies deducted from the sale of rubber for the purpose of replanting rubber plantations with oil palm. However, when settlers made the decision to switch from rubber to oil palm in 2004, cess payments worth RM12,000 that each settler had accumulated over the course of more than 20 years were not paid by Felda. Felda had paid the settlers RM5,000 each but the Land Development Authority still owes the settlers RM13,000 each, including interest). The bone of contention is why only pay those in the Jengka 22 in the N28 Kerdau constituency, while all Felda settlers Pahang have long been waiting for what are rightly theirs! 5.The vicious and baseless attack on Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man, the Director for PAS’ Strategic Centre for the N28 Kerdau by-election by the MSM. The footage was widely covered and repeated by the BN’s TV channels including the ‘independent’ TV3. This should be the last straw of it all. Seen and peceived by many as failing to respond to all the allegations of a failing Pahang state, as concertedly attacked by PAS’ election machinery, as depicted by Auditor General’s report, Umno took the final hours of campaign to level a smear campaign on him, accusing him of abusing and capitalizing on a Felda settler’s financial hardship to his advantage. Courting another Bersih-style revolt All these heinous hate campaign were fortunately clarified by those involved but wasn’t at all featured in the BN’s MSM. Abuse of MSM and denial of opposition’s right to MSM has become more rampant of late. Based on a snap-shot of the abuses and excesses of a regime that practices “Electoral Authoritarianism”, I for one would not have hesitated to give the Election Commission an ultimatum –Respond or face a National Revolt! For the information of all well-wishers of democracy and in all fairness to us in PAS/Pakatan, we had submitted on 2 memorandum to the EC, MACC and the PDRM to protest of all these abuses and subversion of democracy. It does not take a lawyer to be telling you that Najib and his cohorts are abusing the provision of the Election Offences Act of 1954 aimed at curbing abuses and corrupt practices of contending parties in an electoral process. It is the conviction of this writer that Malaysia may not well see the equivalent of the Middle Eastern upheaval soonest. But if this regime persists and perpetuates “Electoral Authoritarianism” with little or no regards for the demands of reform by both civil society and opposition political parties, Najib is indeed courting the like of another and bigger peaceful assembly of 500,000 protestors and well-wishers of democracy prior the 13th GE.