REHMAN RASHID: An ill wind blows no one any good

By : Rehman Rashid

2009/01/25

THERE's so much ballyhoo about this "swing away from Barisan Nasional", there should be a yodelling Tarzan in a leopard-skin loincloth at the end of it. Allow me.

While Pas itself has behaved with a dignified reserve befitting a by-election victory by a margin as slender as BN's in the last general election, the oppositionist media have proclaimed another nail in the coffin of the BN in general and Umno in particular, and are training their sights on a possible by-election in Sabah and state elections in Sarawak, due within two years.

And why not? After their amazing gains of the past year, this is the time to indulge in their fondest dreams.

They're different dreams, but that's what keeps Malaysian politics so endlessly fascinating.

For instance, Pas must find it tantalising now to foresee a near future in which it commands the state governments coast-to-coast across the northern half of the peninsula, from the Straits of Malacca to the South China Sea -- a sort of "Pasistan", as it were, fed by the ricefields of the west and fuelled by the oil and gas of the east.
Pas administrations would oversee the entire length of the border with Thailand, portending changes in the bilateral relationship with the contiguous southern Thai provinces of Satun, Songkhla, Yala and Narathiwat.

The natural osmosis between the two Muslim-majority, ancestrally linked regions might facilitate cooperation of a different order from that so cautiously explored in the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle concept.

But the existing IMT-GT mechanisms could be useful nonetheless, in creating a formidable Islamic economic region braced between Buddhist Thailand in the north and, off its southwest coast, the People's Socialist Republic of Penang.

Penang under DAP will always cultivate cordial relations with Pasistan, because it needs Kedah's water.

Kedah, meanwhile, stands to benefit from Penang's development as a business and tourism hub. (Although at some stage it might want a low-cost carrier terminal of its own too; wouldn't everyone?)

Friendly diplomacy should ensure that Penang's socio-economic and cultural preferences need not fear the looming Islamic entity on its mainland, any more than Singapore ever had to fear the rest of us.

After all, it's been widely noted that non-Muslims no longer "fear" Islamic hudud laws, as they now understand that syariah applies only to Muslims and will have no effect on them.

To be sure, there are certain other prescriptions of Islamic governance that may -- provisions regarding the administration of non-Muslim minorities in Islamic states, for instance -- but such considerations would come much further in the future, if at all, and should still be negotiable in the proper multicultural Malaysian spirit.

Besides, Penang need not be as alone as Singapore was -- the former Straits Settlements and erstwhile colonial centres of Ipoh, Kuala Lumpur and Malacca are also well within DAP's dreaming range. The party is legatee of urban politics stretching back nearly a century, after all.

PKR, however, may have a destiny right out of Joseph Conrad.

The party has been making quite a meal of its promising prospects in Sabah and, particularly, Sarawak. After the non-event of Sept 16 last year, even greater expectations are rising over Malaysian Borneo -- not least because there are grounds for them.

PKR has declared Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim its liaison chief for Sabah and Sarawak, buoyed by the turnouts Anwar enjoyed at test-the-waters events in Miri, Sibu and Kuching this past year.

The entry into PKR of independent Sarawak state assemblyman Gabriel Adit Demong along with nearly 12,000 supporters last November indicated significant sympathy for the opposition, especially among the 28 of Sarawak's 71 state constituencies belonging to indigenous minorities.

Enough of them crossing over -- or losing to PKR candidates in elections -- would enshrine Sarawak among the states to which Anwar would most owe a debt of gratitude.

PKR may also dream of sufficient support in the Malay areas of the peninsula south of Pasistan, and among the aracial intelligentsia, for its Pakatan Rakyat partners to grant it nominal leadership of a federal government (albeit one of diminished national authority).

But it will owe such deference to its traction in Sabah and Sarawak, which will come from Anwar's pledges being read there as promissory notes for greater autonomy and control of natural resources, and the revenues accruing therefrom.

With Pasistan in the north, Dapistan in the west and Sabah and Sarawak dusting off their 20-point agreements, back at the BN fort, the MIC, shunned at the polls and despised by swathes of the Indian Malaysian community, is reduced to a constituency unto itself.

Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu continues to deal with dissent by purging dissenters, thereby ensuring ever-increasing numbers of dissenting Indians outside the MIC, running ever-decreasing circles around it.

The MCA, however, survives. Even if defrocked as the cardinal embodiment of the Chinese Malaysian community, the MCA will nonetheless broker for it.

The good old Towkay's Party is nothing if not learned in the Art of the Deal -- imperious in power, a comprador otherwise.

And Umno, in the fondest dreams of those looking to Pakatan Rakyat to bring about these changes, will balik kampung to Johor, perhaps to run that state, Iskandar Malaysia, the Customs, Immigration and Quarantine complex and Singapore relations.

Now, none of the foregoing is necessarily a prophecy of doom. Those who would consider this scenario alarming, if not downright disastrous, might take solace in knowing that a near-equal number of Malaysians might not have any problem with it -- indeed, some might even consider this an outcome to be hoped and prayed for.

It bears no resemblance to the only nation we've ever been, but who's to say that's a bad thing? When unity is gone, spin divergence as diversity. When continuity is not an option, stasis is suicide.

To quote my brother Rafique in his song of that title, though: "Do it right, do it well, 'cos if you don't it'll hurt like hell."

ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR: Power to rule in the hands of young voters

2009/01/23

Zubaidah Abu Bakar

Malaysia's young voters appear to be getting impatient with what they perceive as Barisan Nasional's reluctance and resistance to change, writes ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR

WHEN Malaysia holds its 13th general election, in 2013 at the latest, the balance between victory and defeat will hinge on younger voters.

This opinionated group will determine whether or not Barisan Nasional stays in power. And BN should be worried, as young voters have sent a clear message -- not just once but three times in the last 10 months -- that they will only support a political party that shares their aspirations.

Weakened by the March 2008 general election, the Umno-led BN badly needs to secure the votes of young voters, whose numbers are expected to reach six million by the next general election. The biggest headache for Umno and BN is that the majority of young people have grievances with either or both of them, and if this is not remedied within the next few years, the next election results could be even worse.

Based on the country's present birth rate, with 450,000 to 500,000 babies born annually, two million more young Malaysians will reach 21 and be eligible to vote in the next general election.
The power of the young will be further reinforced by four million eligible voters, many under 30, who did not register in time for the 2008 elections.

If all two million youngsters choose to register, the eligible voter population in the country will be 16.9 million, including the 10.9 million currently registered.

This means young voters will hold the power to instigate change, and they can demand that their voices be heard. Ignoring them could spell disaster, as younger voters in the 12th general election and two subsequent by-elections leaned towards the opposition, especially in urban areas.

An analysis of the March 2008 general election results shows that many newly-registered voters and those below 30 supported Parti Keadilan Rakyat, Pas and DAP candidates; all three, to their credit, are ahead of BN in warming to young voters.

Opposition candidates got their messages across through social networking tools on the Internet and mobile phones, while BN relied mostly on newspapers and the broadcast media.

A bitter pill for BN was seeing young voters it ferried back in buses to Kelantan from the Klang Valley, not only voting for the opposition but also persuading their relatives and peers to do so.

In the Aug 26 Permatang Pauh by-election, more than 90 per cent of voters under 30 voted for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

One key reason for this was young Internet-savvy voters obtaining their news chiefly from the pro-opposition alternative media, which they perceive as more credible than the mainstream media.

In the recently-concluded Kuala Terengganu by-election, which BN lost, detailed voting data indicated that the ruling coalition had again lost most support from among those under 35.

Political apathy among youth is long gone. The young are aware of what is happening around them and have varied reasons to vote for the opposition.

BN's disconnect from young people is most alarming in the case of urban professionals, who no longer believe that the ruling coalition is capable of making a better Malaysia.

Non-Malays cannot accept the New Economic Policy, considering it as benefiting only the Malays, while young educated Malays concerned with good governance, human rights and democratic ideals view Umno and BN as corrupt.

Several political analysts think that youngsters tend to favour the opposition because they have more liberal views of democracy, with less preference for race-based politics, which explains the appeal of multiracial PKR.

Young people also do not feel indebted to the government that achieved independence half a century ago. BN leaders should realise by now that campaigning on the basis of track records, especially after Kuala Terengganu, no longer works with younger voters.

There has been no attempt to draw up a plan for Umno or BN to win over young voters since the March 8 electoral setback, despite many politicians talking about getting closer to this group.

It has been suggested that BN field more politicians in their 30s and 40s in the next general election, in the hope that these young leaders can speak the language of young people and connect with them.

The recent United States presidential elections, where more than 63 per cent of young voters backed 47-year-old Barack Obama, is testimony of how young people want leaders to whom they can relate.

According to a Gallup poll in October, even before the polls, young Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 favoured Obama over John McCain by a huge margin of 59 per cent to 38 per cent.

In the Malaysian context, BN leaders need not comprise entirely of the young; older politicians, if they are able to embrace "young people things" and understand their needs and aspirations, are still needed for their wisdom and experience.

What matters to most young people are the two Es: engagement and empowerment. BN needs to engage and give them the recognition they deserve, and help nurture them to explore and expand their potential.

It needs to accept and fulfil sincerely their wish to have a say in the economy and governance.

In trying to reinvent and revitalise, prescriptions for BN to undertake "wholesale reform", "sweeping change" and "fresh initiatives" should be seriously considered.

The focus should be on the economy, political stability, freedom of education, job opportunities and social problems, which are the main issues for youth. Managing the economy will be the key over the next three years, as the economic downturn will affect their job opportunities.

The uphill battle for BN is to rid Umno of its rent-seeking image and hold its own against the attacks of the alternative media, and for all component parties to find new ways and means to engage young people.