Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Tengku Temenggung K'tan hantar 'utusan damai' ke Jakarta

Jimadie Shah Othman Apr 28, 09 3:23pm

Tengku Temenggung Kelantan, Tengku Muhammad Fakhry Tuanku Ismail Petra telah menghantar "utusan" untuk menemui ibu mertuanya, Daisy Fajarina, di Jakarta bagi mendamaikan hubungan antara kedua belah pihak, kata teman rapat pasangan tersebut, Mohd Soberi Shafii.Mohd Soberi - yang mengaku kerap bersama pasangan tersebut sejak pertemuan pertama Manoharan Odelia Pinot dengan Tengku Muhammad Fakhry tiga tahun lalu - berkata utusan tersebut berlepas ke Jakarta semalam."Beliau pergi jam 2 (petang semalam). Saya rasa ibu Manohara (Daisy) tidak mahu berjumpa. Tetapi kita hantarlah," katanya yang kerap menggunakan slanga Indonesia dalam perbualannya.Mohd Soberi bersetuju menemui Malaysiakini, sebuah agensi berita Indonesia - Antara - dan sebuah stesyen TV republik itu - TVOne - untuk menceritakan versi beliau mengenai isu sensasi itu. Pertemuan hampir sejam itu berlangsung di sebuah hotel terkemuka di ibunegara petang semalam.Menurut Mohd Soberi, utusan itu juga diminta terus menjaga kebajikan ibu bekas model terkenal itu dan kakak beliau, Dewi Asih Pinot."Istana tidak mahu campur," kata Mohd Sobri bahawa utusan tersebut bukan wakil rasmi Istana Kelantan.Sehubungan itu, kata Mohd Soberi (foto), penyelesaian konflik pasangan tersebut kini "terpulang" kepada sikap ibu Manohara.Tarik balik larangan"(Perkara itu) terpulang kepada Daisy. Kalau (beliau kekal) agresif, masih berdendam, bagaimana (hendak selesai)?" kata Mohd Soberi Shafii. Daisy sebelum ini mendakwa anaknya itu diculik dan didera kerabat diraja Kelantan itu, yang juga suaminya, dan juga mendakwa pernah didera, termasuk dilukakan di bahagian dada.Isu itu mendapat perhatian besar, khususnya media Indonesia apabila Daisy tampil membuat kenyataan akhbar, mendesak campurtangan pemerintah republik itu.Daisy juga berkata, beliau tidak dibenarkan masuk ke Malaysia, yang didakwanya atas arahan Istana Kelantan. Bagaimanapun, pihak imigresen menarik balik larangan tersebut Isnin lalu, atas Kementerian Dalam Negeri (KDN).Mohd Sobri juga berkata tidak perlu Duta Besar Indonesia di Malaysia, Dai Bachtiar membuat kunjungan ke Istana Kelantan berhubung perkara itu."Itu sudah jadi (hal) kerajaan. Kerajaan hendak masuk istana, kena sebaik-baiknya. Untuk apa (ke istana)? Kalau Pak Bachtiar pergi, tetapi ibu Daisy (foto) terus menghuru-harakan keadaan bagaimana?" soalnya.Mengenai dakwaaan Daisy bahawa Tengku Temenggung Kelantan itu 'menculik' Manohara selepas selesai mengerjakan umrah, Mohd Soberi menjelaskan, ia berpunca daripada salah faham semata-mata."Pemandu di Jeddah tidak tahu. Dia bawa Daisy ke tempat jet (akan berlepas) juga. Itu yang jadi kelam-kabut sikit. Jet bila tutup pintu, tidak boleh buka dah. Pulang dari Umrah"Jadi, tertinggalah beliau (Daisy). Itu saja, itu yang beliau kata culik itu," katanya sambil menambah, Daisy sepatutnya pulang menaiki penerbangan lain.Mohd Sobri berkata, beliau juga berada di situ dan menaiki jet yang sama dengan Tengku Temenggung dan isterinya pulang ke tanahair.Menurutnya, turut bersama mereka ialah seorang pengawal peribadi suami isteri itu."Ejen perlancongan lupa cakap pada pemandu kereta. Sepatutnya (selepas) turun dari hotel, kita ke jet, beliau (Daisy) ke (penerbangan) komersial."Ibunya tak tahu. Bila ibu tengok anak naik jet, ibu menangis. Tetapi dalam kapal terbang, Manohara telefon beritahu (ibunya) mahu balik Kelantan dan ibu (pulang) ke jakarta," katanya.Mohd Soberi mendakwa 'ketengangan' antara kedua pihak itu bermula apabila Daisy didakwa menuntut kerabat diraja itu melangsaikan hutangnya."Beliau (Daisy) minta supaya Tengku TT (Tengku Temenggung) bayar hutang. Sedangkan TT telah beri RM300,000," kata Mohd Sobri yang mendakwa hutang Daisy berjumlah RM600,000. "Satu malam beliau bertempik di rumah Tengku TT, tempik macam orang gila. Kenapa tak bagi wang? Anak sudah dikahwini. (Tengku) TT kata hendak bayar, (dan minta) acknowledgement RM300,000 yang telah dibayar sebelum ini," kata Mohd Sobri.'Berjanji di depan Kaabah'Selepas itu, katanya, Daisy menerangkan kepada Tengku Temenggung mengenai perbelanjaannya dari wang tersebut."Di situ (Daisy) mula marah, kaburkan (bawa pergi) anaknya ke Jakarta," tambah Mohd Soberi.Diminta menjelaskan keadaan semasa Manohara, beliau berkata, kedua pasangan itu sudah "berjanji dan berbai'ah" sebagai suami isteri daripada dunia sampai akhirat di depan Kaabah."Saya tanya Mano, masih mahu (bersama Tengku Temenggung)? (Katanya) Kalau tak mahu, saya sudah minta minta cerai. (Tengku) TT adalah lelaki pertama dan terakhir saya. Itulah ucapan Manohara setiap kali saya tanya, berpuluh kali," kata Mohd Soberi.Beliau juga menjelaskan, Daisy dilarang masuk ke negara ini sebelum ini bagi mengelakkan beliau membuat 'kecoh' di Kelantan, tambahan lagi ketika itu menjelang hari keputeraan Sultan Kelantan Mac tahun lalu."Di sana beliau beritahu ejen perlancongan mahu ke Kelantan, suruh Manohara minta cerai. Mahu bawa balik Manohara. Kalau tak, beliau kecohkan hari keputeraan (Sultan). Ibu Daisy ini agresif, beliau tak takut sesiapa," katanya.Mohd Sobri berkata, pertemuan ibunya dengan gadis berumur 17 tahun itu tidak sesuai diadakan pada masa ini."Kalau kita pertemukan (mereka) saat ini, saat beliau marah dan berdendam, beliau nanti menghasut anaknya, (dengan berkata) kamu sayang akukah? Kamu mahu lihat aku matikah? Jadi Manohara tidak boleh stand itu," katanya.Sementara itu, usaha Malaysiakini beberapa kali untuk menghubungi Daisy bagi mendapatkan penjelasannya berhubung dakwaan Mohd Soberi, setakat ini belum berhasil.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Muqabalah dan Pakatan Rakyat Bukan Isu


PERUNDINGAN dengan Umno (muqabalah) dan usaha memperkukuhkan Pakatan Rakyat sepatutnya tidak dijadikan isu menjelang muktamar Pas akan datang. Isu ini tidak pantas untuk mencemarkan sesiapa. Isu ini juga tidak ‘berkelulu’ relevan untuk dijadikan isu bagi mengenepikan mana-mana individu atau kumpulan di dalam Pas.

Sayang isu ini tampaknya dijadikan modal utama oleh pihak tertentu. Sama ada Pas hendak berunding dengan Umno atau hendak mengukuhkan Pakatan Rakyat tidak berbangkit sebenarnya. Kedua perkara itu dipersetujui dan diterima oleh Pas, dan ianya baik. Tidak wajar kalau ada mana-mana pihak menjadi perkara ini satu perbezaan besar dalam minda Pas.

Tidak ada siapa yang menolak secara membabi buta mengenai kedua perkara ini. Isu perundingan juga diterima manakala isu mengukuhkan Pakatan Rakyat juga diakui. Bila Tok Guru Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat meminta ianya ditukar nama dari muzakarah kepada muqabalah, bukan bermakna Mursyidul Am itu menolak secara total.

Kenapa perkara ini timbul masalah ialah apabila pembetulan oleh Nik Aziz Nik Mat itu disalah ertikan atau sengaja diputarbelitkan untuk dijadikan isu murahan. Adalah memalukan kalau seorang bertaraf ulamak mujtahid seperti beliau menafikan perundingan atau perbincangan!

Tetapi ada kecenderongan orang tertentu memainkan isu ini, menjadikan modal dalam kempen menjelang muktamar untuk menaik dan menjatuhkan antara satu sama lain. Gambaran telah diberi dan sengaja diperpanjangkan idea rundingan itu sebagai tindakan memusnahkan Pas. Ada orang yang mengetahuinya namun membuat ralat kononnya dia tidak tahu menahu.

Mereka yang menggunakan isu perundingan atau strategi memperkuatkan Pakatan ini ternyata naif dan tidak dapat mencari isu besar untuk dijadikan modal. Mereka ini juga tidak boleh berfikir jauh selain daripada berputar di sekitar kehidupan mereka yang ruang lingkungannya sekitar 40 km sahaja.

Perundingan bukannya satu dosa! Perundingan bukan bermakna automatik bersetuju dengan apa yang dirundingkan. Perundingan adalah perbincangan. Berkira biacara kata orang Kelantan. Bermuzakarah, mencari akal dan kesimpulan. Selalunya mereka yang menganjurkan perundingan adalah mereka yang cerdik dan pintar di mana dalam perundingan itu pastilah ada motif yang baik dan menguntungkannya. Tidak ada sesiapa pun berunding bagi keuntungan sebelah pihak apa lagi merugikan diri sendiri.

Hairan juga bila ada mereka yang senak akal di dalam Pas, menganggap bila Pas bercadang hendak mengadakan perundingan dengan Umno ia dikira sebagai satu tindakan yang haram. Seolah-olah perundingan itu Pas menyerahkan leher untuk dikorbankan UBN. Mereka yang menerima pandangan ini adalah mereka menutup pintu itjihad. Mereka yang tutup pintu itjihad adalah mereka yang menutup pintu ilmu dan iman!

Begitu juga dengan usaha menguatkan Pakatan Rakyat bukan hak sesetengah orang atau kumpulan tertentu. Ia bukan hak Prolib atau kumpulan Ustaz Mat, ia adalah hak dan tanggungjawab kedua-duanya. Tidak ada siapa yang hendak merelaikan Pakatan Rakyat.

Bukankah keadaan hari ini wujud dengan pembangkang memperolehi kemenangan besar kerana kerjasama politik menerusi Pakatan Rakyat? Rasanya pemimpin yang beranggapan ada pemimpin yang tidak mahu menerima hakikat ini lebih bodoh dari pemimpin yang dituduh itu!

Jika hendak mencari titik bengit, mencari salah, Pakatan Rakyat juga boleh dipertikaikan. Pakatan yang Pas jalinkan hari ini adalah dengan sebahagian orang-orang yang dulunya berada dalam BN, yang diragu itu. Pemikiran, perangai dan budaya orang berkenaan masih juga belum berubah. Apakah apabila mereka berada dalam acuan baru mereka akan berubah, tidak hipokrasi?

Apakah kerana dalam Pakatan Rakyat itu ada DAP, menyebabkan sesetengah orang dalam Pas merasakan yakin dengan Pakatan Rakyat, di mana DAP boleh menjadi saksi dan orang tengah jika berlaku apa-apa perbalahan? Nilai dan darjah keimanan DAP dalam konteks Islam samalah juga dengan nilai dan darjah keimanan parti-parti dalam BN.

Tuduhan mengatakan ada golongan dalam Pas menolak Pakatan Rakyat dan satu lagi menolak rundingan bukan isu utama dan perlu diberikan prioriti. Adalah malang kalau Pas melihat dua perkara ini walhal kedua perkara itu adalah perkara yang perlu ditangani oleh Pas secara kolektif.

Kepada calon-calon atau kumpulan yang hendak bertanding dalam Pas cubalah mengemukakan isu atau gagasan lain lebih besar dan konprehensif. Tunjukkan idea dan juga kebolehan untuk membawa perubahan kepada Pas. Membawa kekuatan. Mungkin tidak menjadi masalah kalau Pas ada dua pihak, Prolib atau Ustaz Mat, kerana ia boleh dinilai oleh perwakilan.

Dua puak itu bolehlah diumpamakan wujud dua parti dalam satu parti yang niatnya untuk memperkasakan parti. Macam konservetif dengan demokrat saling berkerjasama untuk negara bukannya untuk kumpulan dan individu. Bila dua puak ini wujud maka syura boleh dilaksanakan. Pemimpin Prolib ambil setengah, kumpulan Ustaz Mat ambil setengah. Dengan cara ini baru Pas mantap dan versatil.

Sudah sampai cara berpolitik diubah menjadi lebih terbuka dan rasional. Isu perundingan (muqabalah) dan memperkuatkan Pakatan Rakyat yang cuba ditimbulkan itu tidak ada kelas langsung dan ianya tak ubah seperti isu 'aku tak suka ayam mu suka ikan' yang layak dimainkan dalam politik kanak-kanak Pasti saja. Demi kelainan carilah isu yang lebih global yang boleh menunjukkan Pas itu sebuah parti progresif dan ahlinya berkualiti tinggi.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Bukit Gantang: Orang Melayu tolak PAS

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Sejarah telah membuktikan, betapa pilihan raya kecil Bukit Gantang menyaksikan PAS sebagai sebuah parti Islam telah ditolak oleh majoriti orang Melayu. Mereka (Melayu) adalah semuanya beragama Islam!
Mengapakah berlaku begitu? Jawapan spontan ialah kerana di situ majoriti pengundi Melayu mengenali PAS bukan sebagai sebuah parti Islam. Sebaliknya PAS dilihat sebagai parti yang menampilkan Dato' Seri Ir. Mohd Nizar sebagai orang yang terlibat dengan 'sembah derhaka' dan 'boneka orang Cina'. Atas dua faktor ini, populariti PAS merundum di semua kawasan daerah mengundi yang majoriti Melayu. Sementara itu, di kawasan daerah mengundi campuran dan majoriti Cina, PAS telah mencapai populariti yang melonjak! (Lihat jadual analisis keputusan pilihan raya kecil Bukit Gantang di bawah).



Justeru itu, di dalam senario politik negeri Perak dan peringkat nasional amnya, maka orang Melayu lebih sensitif dengan isu-isu klasik dan tradisi. Meskipun nilai isu klasik dan tradisi itu bukan sesuatu yang bersifat dasar/fundamental yang menjamin masa depan; ia tidak lebih daripada sensitiviti kulit/luaran yang samar bagi mana-mana kaum. Namun, itulah sikap politik orang Melayu yang menolak PAS dalam pilihan raya kecil Bukit Gantang.
Sesungguhnya, PAS melalui Ir. Mohd Nizar mempunyai tugas yang berat untuk mengemudi pengundi di Bukit Gantang, terutama kalangan orang Melayu. Salah satu tugas itu ialah menjalankan kelas pengajian politik Islam kepada semua warga Bukit Gantang; terutama di DUN Trong yang dilihat memiliki trend pengundian yang begitu klasik!!
Oleh itu, kembalilah kepada seruan Tuhan Yang Esa agar kita berada di atas jalan lurus yang menjamin kesejahteraan, iaitu al-Islam sebagai suatu titian akidah untuk semua umat manusia. Persoalan orang Melayu yang taksub kepada nilai-nilai akidah adalah lebih mulia daripada mereka yang taksud kepada nilai-nilai klasik dan tradisi.
http://greencresent-wanibrah.blogspot.com/

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Amy Search nafi sertai PAS


MENTERI Besar Kelantan,Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat (tengah) bersama Amy Search (kanan) dan Renggo (kiri) pada sidang media selepas merasmikan Perhimpunan Belia Sempena Jubli Emas Pemuda Pas Kelantan di Stadium Sultan Muhamad ke IV hari ini.

KOTA BAHARU: Ikon rock negara, Amy Search menafikan telah menyertai parti PAS berikutan sering hadir pada majlis yang dianjurkan parti pembangkang itu termasuk pada Perhimpunan Belia Sempena Jubli Emas Pemuda PAS Kelantan yang diadakan di sini, hari ini.

Desas desus penyanyi rock terkenal itu telah menyertai PAS timbul apabila rakan artisnya Renggo, penyanyi utama kumpulan Arrow, mengumumkan secara rasmi menyertai parti itu dan turut menyerahkan borang keanggotaan PAS kepada Mursyidul Am PAS Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat yang juga Menteri Besar Kelantan pada majlis itu.

"Tidak...saya belum menyertai PAS dan kehadiran saya pada majlis politik ini adalah atas jemputan untuk membuat persembahan sama seperti Renggo.

"Apa yang saya buat perlu difikirkan dengan lebih teliti kerana ia akan menjadi ikutan kepada peminat setia saya.

"Saya memang peminat Tok Guru (Nik Abdul Aziz) tapi belum terfikir untuk menyertai PAS," katanya kepada pemberita selepas majlis itu.

Amy atau nama sebenarnya Suhaimi Abdul Rahman berkata beliau telah beberapa kali bertemu dengan Menteri Besar Kelantan itu pada beberapa majlis formal dan tidak formal dan bakal mengadakan konsertnya di sini pada Jun depan.

Beliau berkata atas dasar profesional, kehadirannya pada majlis politik seperti itu tidak perlu dipolitikkan dan sebagai artis ia merupakan satu penghargaan apabila diminta membuat persembahan di hadapan Nik Abdul Aziz.

Pada majlis itu Amy dan Renggo atau nama sebenarnya Mohd Zin Ramli turut menyampaikan beberapa lagu popular mereka.

Sementara itu, Nik Abdul Aziz mengakui begitu tersentuh hati apabila mendengar nyanyian Amy terutama mendendangkan lagu-lagu berentak ketuhanan.

"Sampai mengalir air mata saya mendengar Amy menyanyikan lagu-lagu begini dan apabila artis rock menyampaikan lagu-lagu ketuhanan ia telah menolak tanggapan negatif terhadap mereka," katanya.

Beliau berkata untuk menyampaikan mesej keislaman tidak semestinya hanya para ulama dan tok guru tetapi penyanyi rock juga berupaya menyampaikan mesej yang sama.

"Apa pun kepada penyanyi saya nasihat jangan salah gunakan suara ke jalan yang tidak baik," katanya. BERNAMA

Tuesday, April 07, 2009

A referendum on Dr M too?

– Shannon Teoh

Anwar introduces Manikumar to the voters for the last time. – Picture by Shannon Teoh

SUNGAI PETANI, April 7 – Has Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s involvement in on the final day of campaigning added yet another layer to an already packed agenda for today’s triple by-elections?

By making an eleventh hour blitz through Bukit Gantang and Selambau, the former Prime Minister, whose shadow continues to loom large over local politics and especially Umno, has stolen the thunder once again.

The results from the two polls will now be the clearest indication yet of whether the love-him-or-hate-him statesman, is more loved or hated.

Nearly 100,000 Malaysians were set to decide on what has been hyped up - especially by Pakatan Rakyat - as a multiple referendum.

The overall score is to be a vote of (no) confidence in Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s newly-minted premiership, the legitimacy of the Perak coup by Barisan Nasional is to be decided in Bukit Gantang, the relevance of Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu’s MIC to be settled in Bukit Selambau and the question of any inroads made by the opposition in East Malaysia to be answered in Batang Ai.

Bukit Selambau election director Saifuddin Nasution making a last-minute reminder to PKR supporters not to be confused by the record-breaking 15-choice ballot paper.

But by taking to the stump to discredit his former deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and then telling Indians in Bukit Selambau to vote for BN, Dr Mahathir, Malaysia’s longest serving prime minister ever, has given voters another - albeit, unnecessary - reason to make their voice heard.

Last night, as the clock ticked towards the official end of campaigning at midnight, Opposition Leader Anwar’s reaction to the man who sacked him from government some 11 years ago was conspicuous in its absence.

“It’s okay, don’t disturb him,” he told 3,000 supporters who had braved the rain.

The PKR de facto leader had spent less than a minute preceding that to ridicule Dr Mahathir’s call to support MIC’s Datuk S. Ganesan as Bukit Selambau assemblyman.

Instead, it was PKR vice-president Azmin Ali who had made the challenge to Bukit Selambau to reject Dr Mahathir.

“If Malays have really rallied behind Umno’s new leadership, then why do they need to bring out this old newspaper?” he mocked.

“I challenge you to strike him out of Bukit Selambau,” he told the crowd after telling Dr Mahathir to “look yourself in the mirror before talking about democracy” as he accused him of degrading the institution of the courts, Malay Rulers and the police force during his 22-year premiership.

Eventually, Dr Mahathir will probably have added votes for BN across all three constituencies after his speeches were broadcast over national television.

But failure to tip the scales over to BN in the Peninsula seats, which were looking too close to call until yesterday, will show that his influence is not as potent as Umno had hoped it to be.

A status quo yet so sweet

– Ismail Md Nor

APRIL 8 – Semalam menyaksikan peristiwa yang penuh bermakna, kemenangan Pakatan Rakyat di dua Bukit.

Status quo? Tidak – jika diteliti bentuk dan substansnya. Bentuk – majoriti PR bertambah di dua bukit itu. Makna dan implikasinya – menjangkau lebih jauh. Batang Ai? Padang yang memang tidak landai bertambah curam di bumi kenyalang itu. Apapun, lebih 2000 undi milik calon PKR boleh dibanggakan.

Kemenangan PR di dua bukit tidak terdugakan oleh BN; mereka mengharapkan kemenangan sekurang-kurangnya di Bukit Selambau.

Kemenangan PR mempamerkan suara rakyat atau referendum berupa:

Sokongan kepada:

1. Nizar – MB Perak yang digulingkan oleh siapa lagi ... PM yang baru.

2. Kerajaan PR Perak.

3. PKR

- yang menghadapi pelbagai dugaan di Selangor, Perak dan Kedah;

- yang belum pulih daripada imej ‘the weakest link’ dalam Pakatan;

- yang memilih calon muda Manikumar (yang dijangka setia).

4. Anwar Ibrahim – tokoh politik paling gigih walaupun dilanda pelbagai rintangan.

5. Altantuya – kemenangan ini satu tribut untuknya sama ada dia layak atau tidak menerimanya.

6. Rakyat Malaysia kerana tetap pendirian mahukan perubahan sebenar dan tidak mudah goyah dengan slogan PM baru. (Dua bukit ini merupakan sampel yang baik mewakili seluruh rakyat Malaysia – kecuali Sabah dan Sarawak).

7. Harakah dan Suara Keadian yang diharamkan menjelang PRK itu dan ‘dipolitikkan’ Najib melalui langkah ‘menghalalkan semula’.

8. Media Baru – yang mengambil alih peranan media perdana (yang dikuasai dan diselewengkan oleh BN) memberikan maklumat dengan berkesan (jitu dan cepat) serta membuat jangkaan yang munasabah.

Tamparan kepada:

9. Najib

- PM baru dengan paradigma baru yang gagal mempesonakan rakyat;

- Slogan ‘One Malaysia, People First, Performance Now’ gagal mengubah nasib partinya;

- Dibandingkan prestasi BN pada PRU11 2204 sejurus selepas Pak Lah menjawat PM, aduhai kesiannya Najib ...

- Ini menjadikan Najib PM yang paling tak popular pada masa pertabalannya. Ke mana lagi akan menjunamnya?

- Rakyat Perak masih belum dapat emaafkan petualang yang merampas kuasa di negeri mereka walaupun cuba didinginkan selama 60 hari.

10. SPR yang jelas bersubahat dengan BN

11. - memilih tarikh yang memihak kepada BN;

- menetapkan peraturan baru yang memihak kepada BN.

11. Tun Mahathir yang tidak mampu bersinar lagi. Dia mempunyai saham dalam meruntuhkan Umno dan BN tetapi untuk membantu menguatkannya kembali tidak semudah yang difikirkannya.

12. Pemimpin-pemimpin Umno/BN yang lain tua dan muda, lama dan baru, antaranya:

- Rafidah Aziz yang mengimpikan ‘hadiah’ buat Najib;

- Muhyidin (bakal TPM) – pengarah jentera BN – yang menampakkan keyakinannya untuk BN menang atas alasan kepimpinan baru;

- Ahmad Zahid Hamidi – Naib Presiden Umno, orang kuat BN di Perak;

- Zambry Abdul Kadir yang merelakan dirinya digunakan untuk merampas jawatan Nizar.

13. Media perdana – akhbar, TV dan Radio – yang tak jemu-jemu berkempen untuk BN dan memomokkan tokoh-tokoh Pakatan. Sampai bilakah media perdana akan sedar bahawa liputan berat sebelah, fakta yang diputarbelit, hentaman kepada pihak lawan secara keterlaluan, analisis yang memualkan hanya akan ‘back-fire’ dan meruntuhkan lagi sokongan pengundi atas pagar yang kian cerdik dan celik maklumat. Ia mungkin sesuai untuk pengundi orang kampung tahun 70’an, but not now!.

14. PDRM yang merelakan dirinya digunakan sewenang-wenangnya oleh BN.

15. BN. Jelaslah nasib BN belum berubah – walaupun dengan pimpinan baru. Slogan baru belum dapat memenangi hati rakyat. BN perlu menyesuaikan diri dengan reality baru yang telah bermula pada Mac 2008, bukan cuba menafikannya.

Kesan tsunami politik 2008 belum berakhir; mungkinkah ia baru bermula dan sedang mengumpul tenaga untuk menjana perubahan yang lebih besar.


* Ismail Md. Nor is a reader of The Malaysian Insider.

Bukan Melayu undi pembangkang

Marhaini Kamaruddin

APRIL 8 – Kekalahan BN pada Pilihan Raya Kecil Parlimen Bukit Gantang kepada Pas tidak boleh dijadikan ukuran bahawa kepimpinan baru negara telah gagal mendapat tempat di kalangan rakyat sebaliknya parti itu perlu bekerja lebih keras mengotakan janji pembaharuan.

Pengundi sudah pun membuat pilihan. Walaupun sukar untuk diterima oleh pihak yang kalah tetapi itulah keputusannya.

Calon anak tempatan yang dikemukakan oleh Barisan Nasional (BN), Ismail Saffian gagal menyaingi populariti calon Pas, Datuk Seri Ir. Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin – yang menjadi Menteri Besar Perak selama 11 bulan.

Taktik pembangkang melepaskan peluru penabur di saat-saat akhir dengan mensasarkan serangan peribadi kepada Ismail pada malam sebelum pengundian – sehingga tidak memberi peluang kepada beliau untuk membela diri – sedikit-sebanyak memberi kesan kepada pengundi Melayu atas pagar di kawasan Parlimen ini.

Dan seperti disebut-sebut sepanjang kempen pilihan raya kecil ini, pengundi Cina menjadi penentu apabila mereka beramai-ramai keluar mengundi untuk memberi sokongan kepada Mohammad Nizar yang menjadi calon pilihan DAP sejak awal-awal lagi.

Ternyata pendekatan populis yang diambil oleh Mohammad Nizar sepanjang menerajui kerajaan negeri mendapat sokongan pengundi Cina yang meliputi 27 peratus daripada keseluruhan 56,462 pemilih berdaftar.

Walaupun perkembangan dua tiga hari sebelum tarikh pengundian menunjukkan seolah-olah angin perubahan telah melanda kem BN khususnya kalangan masyarakat Cina tetapi realitinya tidak begitu.

Disangka panas hingga ke petang, rupa-rupanya hujan di Taiping. Bandar warisan tempat penjumlahan undi bagi pilihan raya kecil P059 ini memang hujan setiap hari.

Sambutan hangat kepada program yang dihadiri Pengarah Pilihan Raya BN, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin dan bekas Perdana Menteri, Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad di Kuala Sepetang, tidak diterjemahkan dalam bentuk undi.

Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) Kuala Sepetang yang mempunyai 6,276 orang atau 31.8 peratus pemilih berdaftar kaum Cina mencatatkan jumlah keluar mengundi tertinggi semalam iaitu sebanyak 15,411 pengundi atau 78.14 peratus. Dan di situ sahaja, BN kalah dengan majoriti lebih 2,000 undi.

Ini bermakna BN mengalami majoriti kekalahan lebih 100 peratus berbanding majoriti kemenangan pembangkang di DUN itu pada pilihan raya umum lalu yang hanya 564 undi.

BN juga kalah dalam DUN Changkat Jering yang mencatat peratusan keluar mengundi 73.79 peratus atau 18,418 pengundi.

BN hanya menang di DUN Trong – daerah terbesar dengan jumlah pengundi terkecil iaitu 10,796 orang. Itupun dengan majoriti tidak sampai 1,000 undi daripada 7,928 orang atau 73.8 peratus yang keluar mengundi.

Keseluruhannya 41,757 orang atau 75.34 peratus keluar mengundi pada pilihan raya kecil ini, pertambahan 2.69 peratus berbanding 72.65 peratus atau 40,299 orang pada Pilihan Raya Umum (PRU) 2008.

Dan seperti yang sudah diketahui umum, calon Pas yang mendapat sokongan 100 peratus daripada parti pakatan pembangkang DAP dan PKR, menang dengan majoriti 2,789 undi iaitu pertambahan 1,223 undi berbanding pilihan raya umum tahun lalu.

Pada PRU-12, calon BN, Datuk Seri Abdul Azim Mohd. Zabidi kalah majority 1,566 undi kepada calon Pas, Roslan Shaharum yang memperoleh 20,015 undi.

Calon Bebas, Morgan mendapat 872 undi.

Analisis daripada kekalahan BN di Bukit Gantang, satu faktor patut menjadi renungan BN khususnya parti-parti komponen – MCA dan Gerakan – bahawa majoriti pengundi Cina tidak memihak kepada mereka lagi.

Namun tentulah tidak adil untuk meletakkan kesalahan 100 peratus kepada kedua-dua parti itu sahaja. Hanya persoalannya, ke mana undi para penyokong BN yang kecewa dengan fenomena pada 2008 dan dikatakan sudah kembali menyokong BN.

Keputusan BN untuk melantik badan bebas melakukan bedah siasat punca kekalahan parti itu adalah langkah yang tepat.

“Walaupun kita bekerja keras dengan turun ke bawah memberi penjelasan kepada pengundi tetapi tidak berjaya meyakinkan mereka untuk menerima kita,” katanya sebagai reaksi terhadap kekalahan BN di Bukit Gantang dan Bukit Selambau.

Mungkin BN memerlukan badan bebas untuk memberikan jawapan lebih telus tanpa berselindung tentang sebab-sebab kekalahan parti itu. Apakah isu yang sebenarnya sehingga BN tidak mendapat sokongan pengundi malah dengan kadar yang merosot daripada pilihan raya umum lalu? Dan apa lagi yang dimahukan oleh pengundi bukan Melayu daripada BN?

Bagaimanapun seperti yang dipersetujui sendiri oleh Pengarah Operasi Jentera Pilihan Raya Pas Perak, Asmuni Awi pada sidang akhbar harian di markas parti itu pada awal-awal kempen, keputusan Pilihan Raya Kecil Parlimen Bukit Gantang bukan satu referendum rakyat.

Ia tidak boleh dijadikan cerminan pendirian seluruh rakyat Perak terhadap kerajaan negeri BN, apatah lagi terhadap kepimpinan Perdana Menteri, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak yang baru berusia lima hari.

Seperti kata Muhyiddin, gagasan yang dibawa oleh Najib masih terlalu baru untuk diserap oleh rakyat di negeri ini. Tambahan pula rakyat Perak masih keliru dengan krisis kerajaan negeri yang berlarutan sejak hujung tahun lalu.

Menjadi adat bertanding. Ada menang dan ada yang kalah. Tetapi yang menang tidaklah boleh mendabik dada bahawa mereka menang kesemuanya.

Bagi BN yang kalah, masih ada harapan untuk memulihkan keyakinan rakyat kepada parti tersebut. Pilihan raya adalah satu proses demokrasi.

PRU Ke-13 masih jauh lagi. Najib bersama saf kepimpinan baru yang bakal diumumkan nanti mempunyai masa untuk meyakinkan rakyat agar mempercayai konsep ‘parti, rakyat, kerajaan’ serta gagasan ‘Satu Malaysia’ yang menjanjikan kestabilan dan kemakmuran kepada negara. – Utusan Malaysia

Ismail predicts BN victory by 3,000 votes

Ismail Saffian casting his vote at the SK Bukit Gantang. - Pictures by Choo Choy May

By Debra Chong

BUKIT GANTANG, April 7 – Barisan Nasional candidate Ismail Saffian believes he will win the Bukit Gantang parliamentary seat by a majority of 3,000 votes.

Ismail believes the presence of former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed who joined him on the campaign trail at the eleventh hour yesterday boosted his chances.

“As a negarawan who has contributed greatly to the country, his return will definitely draw those who support him,” Ismail noted, adding “He will give a very positive impact to this by-election.”

Speaking to reporters at the SK Dato’ Panglima Bukit Gantang here this morning, Ismail admitted it had been an intense fight against Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin, the challenger from Pas and his closest rival.

“It’s a tough fight because they have their supporters also,” the 49-year-old said after casting his ballot, shortly after 9am. However, he added he believes “the people will vote for BN and for me.”

PAS suppoters cheering outside the school.

Of the three candidates in the running for MP, local boy Ismail who lives in Kampung Kubu is the only one eligible to vote in the by-election. Nizar is registered to vote in Pasir Panjang down south, where he is also the state assemblyman. The third runner, independent candidate Kamarul Ramizu Idris, from Taiping has never registered to vote.

Asked if his win signified an “endorsement” to the “regime” of newly-minted prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, Ismail replied: “Ya, ya. I think so, I think so. If they vote for me, they vote for BN.”

Pressed further for his views if the converse happened, he said simply: “I leave that to the people to decide.”

Ismail was expected to arrive at the voting station here this morning at 8am. He turned up close to an hour later, dressed in a baseball cap and short-sleeved shirt the same dark blue of the national front. He was accompanied by his wife, Fauziah Noh.

Will 'M factor' save the day?

2009/04/07
By : ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR

TODAY, the more than 98,000 voters of Bukit Gantang, Bukit Selambau and Batang Ai will go to the polls for the second time in 13 months.

Amid speculation on who will come out tops, the registered voters hold the key to victory in the first ever triple by-election.

At the eleventh hour of campaigning, party workers still cannot say with confidence who among the principal contenders will emerge as winners in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau.

Batang Ai, however, is fancied to remain with the Barisan Nasional.

Both the BN and Pakatan Rakyat camps claim the game is evenly poised with either side capable of scoring an injury-time goal.
Observers, however, detect no major shift in votes from Pakatan to the BN since the last general election over a year ago although campaigning has been intense in the two bukits.

Bringing former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau was meant to boost the BN's campaign, with Umno leaders confident the "M factor" would swing Malay votes to their side.

However, the large turnout at Dr Mahathir's first stop at Dataran PPP in Simpang and later at Institut Kemahiran Mara in Sungai Petani mostly consisted of Umno supporters welcoming his return to the party on Saturday.

The crowd included supporters from all over the country, including old-timers from the Kubang Pasu division, which Dr Mahathir headed for many years.

The question is whether Dr Mahathir's message will filter down to voters in time for the ballot.

Several opposition leaders think he will reclaim the votes of Umno members lost in the 2008 general election.

But in Bukit Gantang, Pas elections director Datuk Mustaffa Ali, who a few days ago said Umno was ahead in the contest for Malay votes, expressed confidence that Pas now had an edge over BN.

There the campaigning has been fierce, with Pakatan billing the parliamentary by-election as a referendum on the BN's takeover of the Perak state government.

Aiming for advantage, Pas fielded the ousted menteri besar, Datuk Seri Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin, who is facing local Umno man Ismail Saffian and independent Kamarul Ramizu Idris.

Of the 55,562 Bukit Gantang voters, nearly 64 per cent are Malays, many of whom seem to be tilting towards Umno-BN. A majority of the 27 per cent Chinese voters is thought to be solidly behind Pakatan as are the Indians who make up nine per cent.

In Bukit Selambau, although the main contest will be between BN and Parti Keadilan Rakyat, the 13 independent candidates in the fray could act as spoilers to Datuk S. Ganesan, the BN candidate from MIC, and the PKR's S. Manikumar.

The release of two leaders of the banned Hindu Rights Action Force is said to have an impact on the Indian voters, who account for nearly 30 per cent of the 35,140 voters in the state constituency, one of the biggest percentages in the country.

Half of the voters who are Malays are said to be split, and most of the 19 per cent Chinese are expected to vote PKR.

Pas president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang has said that the Malays may reject Manikumar in favour of an independent candidate of their own race.

It will be interesting to see whether the 8,006 voters in Batang Ai, who are mostly Iban, will dismiss Pakatan's ambition of winning Sarawak from long-time Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Abdul Taib Mahmud, who leads Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu Sarawak, one of the 13 BN component parties.

It is widely reckoned that the Ibans from the longhouses are more likely to vote for the status quo and return a BN candidate.

The chances of PKR's Jawah Gerang beating Malcom Mussen Lamoh of BN's Parti Rakyat Sarawak depended on the PKR's ground machinery, which is inferior to the BN's.

If the BN or Pakatan were to win 3-0 tonight, a mini-tsunami could inundate the political landscape.

A 3-0 win will re-energise BN, which has been defeated twice in by-elections in Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu after being hard hit in the 2008 general election.

A 3-0 win for Pakatan will be seen by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's supporters as clearing his line of sight to Putrajaya.

Thursday, April 02, 2009

BN and PAS face off in Perak

1 Apr 09 : 8.50PM By Deborah Loh

NO other issue dominates the Bukit Gantang by-election as much as the
Barisan Nasional (BN)'s 5 Feb 2009 takeover of the Perak state government
and the sultan's role in it.

As the BN and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) take to the campaign trail, who has the
better argument in what has become a neverending war of rhetoric? The suits
and counter-suits filed by both sides have not helped to clarify the
situation for voters, either.

The Nut Graph secured an interview with the BN's Menteri Besar Datuk Dr
Zambry Abdul Kadir on 30 March, and then threw the points he raised to PAS's
Bukit Gantang by-election operations director Asmuni Awi the next day, to
compare their arguments.


Zambry on the BN state government being an illegal one:

I keep on saying, who triggered this whole episode? It is the basic question
the public must ask, who triggered the whole thing? It's not a question of
who's right or wrong. The issue is that, it was triggered from somewhere.

One side must be right, the other must be wrong. The wrong side is their
side in the first place. And now they try to put the blame on us. They twist
everything and tell the public we are the ones who rampas kuasa. But people
should ask, who started it?

They were the ones who enticed our man (Bota assemblyperson Datuk Nasarudin
Hashim) first. Then it happened that he and three other assembly[persons]
left them. We never went to anyone of them. It was something that just
boomeranged on them. We didn't expect it to happen at all.

Asmuni on the PR starting the trend of crossovers:

We have never done any defections. Just look at Umno's history. They did it
in Terengganu in 1959 (when the coalition government of PAS and Parti Negara
collapsed because of defections by Parti Negara representatives to Umno),
then in Kelantan in 1968, in Sabah in 1993 by enticing representatives from
Parti Bersatu Sabah to switch allegiance to the BN.

This is a history that cannot be denied. Memang mereka yang baling tahi tak
akan mengaku.


Zambry on allegations that the BN used inducements to get the crossovers:

They (the PR) also use the same tactic.

Asmuni's reply:

Pemberi and penerima rasuah akan masuk neraka.


Zambry on the BN being afraid to face the PR in fresh state-wide elections:

Do you think they would do the same if this happened to them?

Asmuni on what if the PR were in the BN's shoes now:

It is not true [that we would not want fresh elections]. Even if the court
decides to uphold our petition - that Nizar is the legitimate menteri
besar - we will still seek an audience with Tuanku Sultan to seek a
dissolution. We won't cling to power even for a day.


Zambry on whether the by-election is a referendum on the Perak takeover:

This is only a by-election. Bukit Gantang doesn't represent the whole of
Perak.

Asmuni on why it is a referendum, and what if the BN won the by-election:

Despite Umno saying that it will change, and if people still reject them...
despite the constitutional crisis and if people still give PAS a high
majority - how can we not interpret it but as a referendum?

But if we are rejected, the question of whether the BN is the legitimate
government does not arise as it is a legal matter still pending in court. If
we lose, we have to study why people rejected us - was it because of the
issues, or underhanded tactics by the BN?


Zambry on the impact of the constitutional crisis on the BN's chances of
winning:

They (the PR) have been imposing their side of the story. They ridicule all
the institutions that seem to be against them, like the sultan. Sooner or
later the public will come to their senses and ask, what are they trying to
do?

They are playing [the constitutional crisis] according to ethnic interest.
They are not really looking at what else is going on in Perak. If you go to
the rural areas, you'll find that people just want to know how the
government can solve their daily problems.

Asmuni on how voters are accepting PAS's defence against the BN's
allegations of derhaka (treason) against the Sultan:

We have given extensive explanations and they have accepted it. History has
shown that Umno has also committed treason against the royalty. In Perak
history, there was Tan Sri Ghazali Jawi, who refused to vacate his seat as
menteri besar (in 1976) despite being asked by the late Sultan (Idris Shah)
to do so.

There was the removal of the rulers' immunity in the early 1990s, and
amendments to the Federal Constitution to hold back their assent to laws
approved by Parliament or the state assembly. Is that not called derhaka
when you take away the king's power?
http://www.thenutgraph.com/rulers-can-be-prosecuted-because-of-umno

Last year, Umno protested against the Terengganu Sultan who did not want the
menteri besar chosen by the prime minister.
http://www.thenutgraph.com/respect-and-royalty


Zambry on why the Chinese Malaysian community remains angry about the
constitutional crisis since the issue of derhaka has no traction with them.

We have to explain the constitutional crisis to them in a legal manner and
tell them that it was in accordance with the rule of law. We also have to
tell the Chinese [Malaysians] about the need to maintain peace and
stability. On one hand, you can talk about the takeover episode, but on the
other, if you allow this kind of situation to continue where any Tom, Dick
or Harry can take the law into their own hands, the situation can become
very racially dangerous.

Asmuni on where Chinese Malaysians stand:

The Chinese are smart, they have more access to the media. They have
accepted our explanation.


Zambry on PAS disobeying the Quran, which calls on Muslims to obey their
rulers:

If PAS is religious, they will understand that a verse from the Quran is
sacred and they won't go against it. They know that the Quran clearly says
that you have to obey God, obey the Prophet and obey the rulers.

Asmuni on obedience and dissent:

In Islam, there is room for dissent or "ikhtilaf". When we disagree, it does
not mean that we are not following Islam. In Islam, there is no total
obedience except to Allah.

But to other people, to leaders, as long as they do right we follow, but if
they do wrong we can voice our disagreement in a respectful way. We cannot
read Quranic verses piecemeal, we have to read in totality. There are other
verses that say that loyalty does not apply to things that are not right.
____

http://my-1.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/opinion/khalid-samad/22028
-the-bukit-gantang-by-election

The Bukit Gantang by-election

APRIL 2 - I arrived in Bukit Gantang at 5 in the morning of March 29. Headed
straight for the Taiping mosque as suggested by a friend. It was full,
overflowing at the seams. It looked as though we had taken over the mosque,
with many of "the faithful" wearing T-shirts and vests with clear Pas and PR
political colours and slogans written on them.

When the early morning or dawn prayers started, many were still queueing to
go to the loo as well as waiting their turn to do the ritual ablutions. The
mosque was so packed that many were unable to get in to pray together with
the "first batch". I was later told there were three "batches" before
everyone present got to perform their prayers.

At 7.30am special "hajat" prayers were held for the victory of Datuk Seri
Nizar Jamaluddin. Political loyalties were clear and the carrying out of
such prayers at any "establishment" mosque was unheard of a year or so ago.

By 8am everyone was ready to march on from the mosque to the nomination
centre about a kilometre away. I did not see any of the party leaders but I
saw the main banner at the front of the procession and followed. I was later
informed the main procession came from another gathering point, Air Kuning,
on the other side of town. The party leaders, together with Nizar, were with
the other procession.

When the two processions merged at the nomination centre, it was like the
meeting of two rivers. The area allocated was too small and the crowd
"overflowed", with many people climbing up the hill adjacent to the
nomination centre overlooking the open field.

They filled the hill slope while holding banners and flags. It was a sight
that I will remember for some time.

The Kelab Penyokong Pas was well represented. The Indian members of KPP
played their tabla continuously and made their presence felt. There were
side shows in the form of mini ceramahs at various locations to keep the
crowd "entertained".

The DAP leaders, members and supporters came in their numbers and they waved
both DAP and Pas flags. PKR leaders were also present but fewer in number
due to the by-elections in Bukit Selambau and Batang Ai.

I saw many wearing Nizar face masks and there were even a few wearing
Altantuya face masks showing her with a bandana on which was written "Who
killed me"?

When the nomination process was over, it was announced that there were three
candidates, one of whom was an independent from Pekida, an Umno-backed Malay
nationalist religious NGO. Seems like a contradiction in terms besides being
a mouthful.

At least it was not like Bukit Selambau which was seemingly an attempt to
get into the Guinness Book of Records! May the independent Pekida candidate
take away the Umno votes.

Seemed like everyone present understood the importance attached to this
by-election. For Pas and the PR, it is virtually a referendum on the issue
of the take over of the Perak State government by the BN.

A victory for Nizar would constitute concrete proof of the Perak rakyat's
rejection of BN's politics and their attempt to demonise Nizar as a DAP
puppet and a betrayer of the Malays. It would give Nizar and the PR of Perak
a strong basis to challenge the BN yet again for another showdown at the
state level to prove who has the rakyat's support.

A victory for BN on the other hand would silence the Perak PR who would then
be forced to admit a decreasing support from amongst the rakyat since March
2008. Datuk Seri Najib Razak would also be able to pounce on the victory as
proof of the people's acceptance of his new line-up and his proclaimed
intentions for change.

Then the parties got into gear and started their activities. Pas has its
party workers assigned to all the three state constituencies based on the
states from where they came. This was further broken down to the respective
voting centres based on the respective divisions or kawasans.

Selangor Pas was assigned to the state constituency of Trong and within
that, Shah Alam was assigned to the Air Terjun voting centre. Trong was the
one constituency, out of three in Bukit Gantang, that we lost.

As always, the mornings were for distribution of pamphlets and
house-to-house campaigning, the nights for the ceramahs.

After three days of semi-intense campaigning, a familiar pattern emerged.
The PR campaigners and leaflets were well received and the ceramahs brought
in the locals by the hundreds. The ceramahs are attended by a multi-racial
crowd and the votes of the Chinese and Indians seem "in hand".

This is a far cry from the empty tents during BN's ceramahs. It looks like
an uphill task for the BN from where we stand but then again, their
desperation for a victory may lead to desperate measures.

During this period there was already news of the police preventing some
ceramahs, the Election Commission stopping a ceramah well before the normal
midnight deadline on the flimsiest of excuses and Umno members harassing the
Muslimat who were on a house-to-house campaign. These tactics will hopefully
only turn Perakians further against the BN.

The word on the ground is that our votes in the Trong constituency will
increase in our favour. As a result the BN is already talking about
enlisting the help of the father of all Umno heroes, Tun Dr Mahathir
Mohamad, to help them in their campaign. Talk about desperation!

The old man may be able to swing some votes their way, particularly that of
the older folks, but he will definitely swing many more our way as well.

Whatever it is, the situation only promises to heat up the political
temperatures in the country as all talk of "unity government" is drowned out
by the battle cries of the by-election.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Khalid Samad is MP for Shah Alam. He is also Head of Shah Alam PAS Division
and also member of the PAS political bureau which is the most powerful
bureau in the party. His website is www.khalidsamad.com

Wednesday, April 01, 2009

Uphill task for Pas to retain Malay votes

2009/04/01
ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR
MALAY support for Barisan Nasional in Bukit Gantang is very much alive, sending opposition campaigners scrambling to find answers since official campaigning started on Sunday.
The main target of both camps is the young Malays who are undecided about who to vote for come April 7. They account for about 2,000 of the 55,300 Malay voters in the parliamentary constituency.

Like other Malays in Perak, they have been left uneasy over the events surrounding BN's takeover of the state administration from Pakatan Rakyat.

A man in his 60s, attending a ceramah by Pas candidate, the ousted menteri besar Datuk Seri Mohamed Nizar Jamaluddin, let go a big sigh, murmuring his inability to convince one of his two children who are eligible to vote to support Pakatan Rakyat.

"My daughter is okay but my son makes his own choice."
It is an uphill task for Pas to retain support in the Malay ground based on the party's performance in previous elections.

Nevertheless, party leaders pledged to fight till the end and the question of giving up hope does not arise at all.

"They (BN) are slightly ahead of us. Bukit Gantang has always been their stronghold. We won the seat last year because of non-Malay voters. The Malays traditionally support the government of the day but we are working very, very hard," said Pas election director Datuk Mustaffa Ali.

An independent survey conducted by Ilham Centre among 622 voters, of whom 65 per cent were Malays living in Bukit Gantang's three state constituencies of Changkat Jering, Kuala Sepetang and Trong, showed that only 40 per cent of the respondents felt Pas could retain the seat.

Two other surveys by Pakatan Rakyat showed 38 per cent and 34 per cent acceptance level to Nizar being the new Bukit Gantang member of Parliament.

Malays in Bukit Gantang have always supported BN but in the last general election, the support was only slightly above 50 per cent.

This was partly due to protest from Umno members unhappy with Datuk Seri Abdul Azim Zabidi's candidacy, branding him a parachute candidate. This, coupled with the huge swing in support among non-Malays, enabled Pas to win.

Only 52.6 per cent of Malays voted for BN and 34.8 per cent among non-Malay voters.



In 2004, the Malay voters here, like everywhere else in the country, voted for BN due to the Abdullah factor -- Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi having just taken over the country's premiership from Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

The Malay vote stood at 84.4 per cent and the non-Malay vote at 51 per cent, giving Gerakan Wanita Chief Datuk Tan Lian Hoe a ticket into parliament.

And even when the Malay vote was going against BN and Umno in the aftermath of the sacking of former deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Umno still managed to hold on to the seat in 1999.

The swing of voters either way will depend largely on what Malays think of the BN takeover of the state administration and of the leadership of Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who is due to succeed Abdullah as the sixth prime minister.

Nizar has been going on stage nightly at public rallies appealing for sympathy votes over the "undemocratic" way the state government was wrested from Pakatan.

Similarly, his main opponent, Ismail Saffian of Umno, has been trying to get close to the voters besides getting a helping hand from national and state Umno leaders, who visit frequently.

The other contender, independent candidate Kamarul Ramizu Idris is not seen as a threat to either Nizar or Ismail.

Mustaffa and other Pas leaders are unperturbed that Umno is going about claiming Nizar is a puppet of the Chinese.

They are also paying no heed to allegations that Nizar committed treason for not heeding the advice of the Sultan of Perak to resign as menteri besar as he no longer had the majority support in the state legislative assembly.

A party official believed that Umno's tactic could backfire as the campaign materials they distributed in the Malay areas were photocopied and re-distributed by the opposition among non-Malay voters.

Campaign is on-going and as the Malays often say, "esok belum tentu" (tomorrow is still uncertain). -- zubaidah@nst.com.my