ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR
MALAY support for Barisan Nasional in Bukit Gantang is very much alive, sending opposition campaigners scrambling to find answers since official campaigning started on Sunday.
Like other Malays in Perak, they have been left uneasy over the events surrounding BN's takeover of the state administration from Pakatan Rakyat.
A man in his 60s, attending a ceramah by Pas candidate, the ousted menteri besar Datuk Seri Mohamed Nizar Jamaluddin, let go a big sigh, murmuring his inability to convince one of his two children who are eligible to vote to support Pakatan Rakyat.
"My daughter is okay but my son makes his own choice."
Nevertheless, party leaders pledged to fight till the end and the question of giving up hope does not arise at all.
"They (BN) are slightly ahead of us. Bukit Gantang has always been their stronghold. We won the seat last year because of non-Malay voters. The Malays traditionally support the government of the day but we are working very, very hard," said Pas election director Datuk Mustaffa Ali.
An independent survey conducted by Ilham Centre among 622 voters, of whom 65 per cent were Malays living in Bukit Gantang's three state constituencies of Changkat Jering, Kuala Sepetang and Trong, showed that only 40 per cent of the respondents felt Pas could retain the seat.
Two other surveys by Pakatan Rakyat showed 38 per cent and 34 per cent acceptance level to Nizar being the new Bukit Gantang member of Parliament.
Malays in Bukit Gantang have always supported BN but in the last general election, the support was only slightly above 50 per cent.
This was partly due to protest from Umno members unhappy with Datuk Seri Abdul Azim Zabidi's candidacy, branding him a parachute candidate. This, coupled with the huge swing in support among non-Malays, enabled Pas to win.
Only 52.6 per cent of Malays voted for BN and 34.8 per cent among non-Malay voters.
In 2004, the Malay voters here, like everywhere else in the country, voted for BN due to the Abdullah factor -- Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi having just taken over the country's premiership from Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
The Malay vote stood at 84.4 per cent and the non-Malay vote at 51 per cent, giving Gerakan Wanita Chief Datuk Tan Lian Hoe a ticket into parliament.
And even when the Malay vote was going against BN and Umno in the aftermath of the sacking of former deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Umno still managed to hold on to the seat in 1999.
The swing of voters either way will depend largely on what Malays think of the BN takeover of the state administration and of the leadership of Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who is due to succeed Abdullah as the sixth prime minister.
Nizar has been going on stage nightly at public rallies appealing for sympathy votes over the "undemocratic" way the state government was wrested from Pakatan.
Similarly, his main opponent, Ismail Saffian of Umno, has been trying to get close to the voters besides getting a helping hand from national and state Umno leaders, who visit frequently.
The other contender, independent candidate Kamarul Ramizu Idris is not seen as a threat to either Nizar or Ismail.
Mustaffa and other Pas leaders are unperturbed that Umno is going about claiming Nizar is a puppet of the Chinese.
They are also paying no heed to allegations that Nizar committed treason for not heeding the advice of the Sultan of Perak to resign as menteri besar as he no longer had the majority support in the state legislative assembly.
A party official believed that Umno's tactic could backfire as the campaign materials they distributed in the Malay areas were photocopied and re-distributed by the opposition among non-Malay voters.
Campaign is on-going and as the Malays often say, "esok belum tentu" (tomorrow is still uncertain). -- zubaidah@nst.com.my
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