PAS plots capture of Umno states in next polls

By Shazwan Mustafa Kamal

June 13, 2010

Khalid speaks at the PAS muktamar in Kota Baru June 12, 2010. — Picture by Choo Choy May

KOTA BARU, June 13 — PAS will launch a  vigorous campaign to win 60 federal seats in the next general election to again deny the ruling Umno-Barisan Nasional the two-thirds Parliamentary majority.
The bold plan, which was unanimously passed during the PAS annual general assembly yesterday, will be executed to “ensure that PAS attains as many Parliamentary seats as possible to replace Umno as the core of national politics based on leadership by Islamic values.”
The proposal titled “PAS action plan for the 13th general elections” sees PAS eyeing 37 Parliamentary seats currently dominated by mainly Umno MPs in addition to retaining the Islamist party’s own 23 seats.
The proposal outlines a breakdown of potential seats to be won by PAS:

• Seats where PAS lost by less than 13,000 votes (in 2008) = 13 seats
  
• Seats where PAS lost by less than 10,000 votes= 8 seats
  
• Seats where PAS lost by less than 5,000 votes= 16 seats

“We are planning a takeover of Umno seats,” PAS Shah Alam delegate Khalid Samad told The Malaysian Insider.
The Shah Alam MP claimed PAS’ success in penetrating Umno-stronghold areas in Johor during the last general election showed that support for the party had been on a steady increase.
“Previously, PAS had contested in Johor but lost our deposits. But now this is no longer the case.
“What is happening now is that there is a shift where Malays are slowly gravitating towards PAS because we practice a new kind of politics... that fulfils the needs of a multicultural society. It can be done and has been done in Pakatan-ruled states now,” said Khalid.
PAS had won the state seats of Sungai Abong and Maharani, both in Johor, in Election 2008 much to Umno’s surprise as the southern state is its fortress and birthplace.
“If we keep up with the same working spirit, with PAS’ co-operation within Pakatan Rakyat (PR), we can replace Umno.
“The Islamic way is the way we want.
“So in preparation for the 13th general election, we should not look left, or right ... we are on the right track,” said Khalid.
The motion had been brought up by the delegates from Kubang Kerian, Pokok Sena, Kubang Pasu, Jerantut and Bandar Tun Razak.
The proposal is seen as PAS’ attempts to solidify its position within the PR coalition and distance itself from alleged PAS-Umno unity talks.
Various reasons for the Islamist party’s failure in the last elections have been identified as:

1. The domination of mainstream media by Barisan Nasional (BN) whereby PAS still has problems in reaching out to rural Malays because their opinions are shaped by what they read in BN-influenced news media.
   
2. Postal votes are the primary weapon used by BN to win areas like Pekan and Bagan Pinang.
   
3. Communities in rural areas like Felda and villages are “closed societies”, which could be seen during the Hulu Selangor by-election where Malay voters rejected PR.
   
4. A high number of unregistered voters (Elections Commission states that 4.39 million voters have yet to register).
   
5. The imbalance of support and influence for PR in Sabah and Sarawak as opposed to Peninsular Malaysia.
   
6. PAS’ untrained election machinery in these areas.
   

The proposal further put forth a 15-point action plan in response to the problems identified as hindering PAS from winning more seats:

1. A preparation of an alternative media that can rival the BN-controlled mainstream media, and focused on reaching to rural Malays.
   
2. A special fund for the 13th general election be set up to prepare election machinery.
   
3. A serious and systematic approach in getting voters to vote. Minimum target is one million voters in the whole country.
   
   - The Malaysian Insider

Nik Aziz: PAS’ future with Pakatan, not BN

By Shazwan Mustafa Kamal

June 10, 2010

KOTA BARU, June 9 — Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat tonight set the pace for the PAS annual general assembly, stressing to members that they should never accept Barisan Nasional (BN) as political partners.

In his opening address of the PAS AGM here, the party spiritual chief said that PAS needed to work hard to strengthen Pakatan Rakyat (PR) as an alternative coalition to BN.

“Pakatan Rakyat needs to work together. We cannot cooperate with those who encourage various evils in society,” said Nik Aziz.

The Kelantan Mentri Besar said that the political history of the country was proof of the “painful” lesson that PAS had learnt when it had joined BN.

“Back then when we joined BN for the purpose of unity, but it was a bitter lesson for us.

“PAS almost crumbled because of unity attempts with BN. There is a lesson to be learnt from this...BN is an unfaithful partner,” said Nik Aziz.

The PAS spiritual leader’s stern reminder to party members comes amid rife speculation that top party leaders have been engaging in unity talks with long-time political foes Umno.

Earlier today, in an interview with The Malaysian Insider, Nik Aziz dismissed any possibility of unity talks with Umno.

The PAS spiritual advisor has vehemently denied that there are still attempts coming from within PAS to reach out to Umno based on “Malay and Islamic” interests.

“Absolutely not. There is no way that PAS would even consider unity talks with Umno,” said Nik Aziz.

In the exclusive interview, the Kelantan Mentri Besar claimed that PAS and Umno could not see eye-to-eye because the principles of both parties were vastly different.

“Umno rejects Islam. Umno put fear into people because PAS was talking about the concept of an Islamic nation.

“But for Umno, it’s a case of Malays first (Ketuanan Melayu) versus PAS’ Islam first (Ketuanan Islam),” said Nik Aziz to The Malaysian Insider.

Using the results of the Sibu by-election as a barometer, the 79-year old politician said Sibu was proof that “BN had been rejected by non-Malays.”

The Kelantan PAS commissioner claimed that BN’s base support right now are the Malays.

“PAS, as an alternative to Umno has to be active in getting Malay support. Our priority is secure Malay support,” said Nik Aziz.

Besides that he stressed that PAS can use its increasing popularity to “introduce Islam to non-Muslims.”

“Malaysians have to know that Islam does not belong to the Malays. The PAS Supporters’ Congress is a gift from Allah.

“PAS needs to move forward to introduce Islam as a way of life.”

Nik Aziz also said that the PAS Women’s Wing needed to do more to attract more women members.

Judi bola: Politik dan ekonomi

Nathaniel Tan believes this world is full of people, he was born to love them all. He blogs at www.jelas.info and tweets @NatAsasi

May 26, 2010

26 MEI — Saya penagih poker. Kebanyakkan orang menganggap ini bermaksud saya suka judi, dan mereka tidak 100 per cent salah.
Sebenarnya, di kalangan pemain poker sendiri ada spektrum yang merangkumi pemain yang bersifat amat konservatif (“nits”) dan yang bermain secara lebih mengambil risiko (“loose/aggressive”). Saya biasanya dikira konservatif.
Saya tidak berminat mana-mana lain permainan yang melibatkan perjudian — terutamanya di kasino.
Pertamanya, saya tidak suka bergantung kepada nasib. Dalam poker, walaupun unsur nasib memang ada, menang kalah serta jumlah yang terlibat boleh dikawal sedikit dengan kemahiran dan disiplin.
Satu lagi sebab saya mengelak dari kasino, mainan nombor dan sebagainya diungkap baik dalam pepatah Inggeris “The house always wins.”
Maksudnya, permainan di kasino, judi nombor, dan sebagainya telah distrukturkan supaya badan yang mengawal permainan itu selalu untung dan tidak mungkin rugi sama sekali. Walaupun kadang kala (sebenarnya cukup jarang sekali) kita boleh menang, dalam jangka masa panjang, syarikat judi itu selalu menang.
Dilihat dari sudut lain, maksudnya orang yang judi selalu kalah.
Itulah sebabnya konglomerat judi di merata dunia selalu mengaut keuntungan yang luar biasa, dan nilai sahamnya tinggi sekali.
Saya tidak berapa layak untuk menilai soal judi bola di Malaysia dari segi moral, tetapi saya rasa berbaloi juga kita mendekati soalan ini dari segi ekonomi dan kebajikan rakyat.
Seorang rakan di universiti jurusan ekonomi dulu menulis tesisnya berasaskan dua soalan mudah: a) Patutkah sebuah kerajaan menganjurkan loteri? b) Pada keseluruhannya adakah loteri ini menguntungkan atau merugikan rakyat?
Soalan berkenaan penganjuran loteri secara langsung oleh kerajaan berpaksikan beberapa aspek. Keuntungan dari loteri ini boleh diandaikan sebagai sesuatu cukai (walaupun suatu cukai yang biasanya hanya dibayar oleh golongan miskin dan serdahana). Hasil cukai tersebut secara teorinya boleh digunakaan balik untuk manfaat masyarakat am.
Walaubagaimanapun, jika loteri atau mana-mana mainan judi yang lain dianjurkan oleh pihak swasta, manfaat ini amat dikurangkan kerana kebanyakan dari hasil untung disalurkan ke konglomerat (dalam kes kita: Berjaya, saudara Tan Sri Vincent Tan, dan pihak-pihak politik yang disokongnya) dan bukannya balik kepada rakyat (kecuali cukai kerajaan yang kecil — halalnya cukai ini mungkin boleh dipertikaikan).
Mainan judi sebegini jelas pada keseluruhannya merugikan rakyat. Jumlah duit yang dimenang melalui judi bola oleh golongan menang, contohnya, sudah tentu cukup kurang dari jumlah yang hilang oleh golongan kalah. Kesimpulannya, rakyat secara keseluruhannya lebih miskin selepas Piala Dunia dari sebelumnya.
Kita juga harus tanya: Siapakah yang biasanya berjudi sebegini? Dalam isu judi bola, dan lebih lagi untuk mainan nombor, kebanyakkan pemain terdiri daripada rakyat yang berkedudukan ekonomi rendah ke serdahana.
Ini bermaksud perluasan aktiviti judi yang menarik rakyat dengan janji-janji untung mudah dan besar sebenarnya memiskinkan lagi rakyat yang sudah cukup dibebankan dengan masalah ekonomi.
Ada yang berhujah bahawa pemberian lesen judi bola adalah berpatutan kerana sah atau tidak, kegiatan ini tetap berlaku — lebih baik ia diregulasasikan, dipantau, dan sebahagian keuntungannya dialirkan kepada kerajaan.
Ramai pula berbalas bahawa jika pendekatan ini logik, maka ia harus diperluaskan untuk merangkumi aktiviti-aktiviti seperti pelacuran, pinjaman wang melalui Ah Long dan sebagainya.
Saya ingin bertambah bahawa lesen judi bola juga akan memperbanyakkan nombor orang yang akan berjudi. Mereka yang dulunya takut untuk melibatkan diri dalam aktiviti yang tak sah dari segi undang-undang akan kini menampil untuk mengambil kesempatan peluang baru ini.
Memang sukar untuk kita percaya penganugerahan lesen judi bola tanpa apa-apa tender kepada Vincent Tan dan Berjaya tiada kaitan langsung dengan hubungan dekat Tan dengan pihak-pihak berkuasa.
Nama Tan kerap muncul dalam perbincangan melibatkan wakil-wakil rakyat yang telah melompat parti dalam setahun dua ini, dan kita terpaksa tanya dari mana datangnya dana untuk semua “hadiah-hadiah pilihanraya” di Hulu Selangor, Sibu dan seterusnya. Ramai juga mengaitkan lesen judi ini dengan “tabung dana” untuk pilihanraya umum ke-13 yang dirasai kian mendekati.
Usaha-usaha menggunakan cara haram untuk mengaut keuntungan yang meningkatkan beban ekonomi rakyat demi menyokong aktiviti-aktiviti yang lebih haram lagi haruslah dipantau dengan dekat oleh rakyat, dan jika didapati memang benar, dibantah sekeras-kerasnya.
* The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the columnist. - The Malaysian Insider

PAS mulls plans to win more Malay votes

By Adib Zalkapli

May 24, 2010

PAS Youth, under Nasrudin, has been tasked with gathering information for the strategies. — file pic

KUALA LUMPUR, May 24 — The central PAS leadership will meet after the upcoming annual muktamar to finalise their strategies to win over Umno strongholds in the next general election, which have thus far resisted their charms.
The Islamist party has engaged the services of an opinion polls researcher to identify the concerns of the Malay voters, especially in the west coast and the southern peninsula, which is solid Umno country.
“We are still having problems convincing the rural Malays who do not have access to the new media. Those who still rely on television as their source of news,” said PAS Youth chief Nasrudin Hassan in confirming the retreat, which will be held sometime in July.
Nasrudin described the retreat as the final preparation before the party heads to the 13th general election that must be held by 2013.
“As soon [as] after the muktamar, we will start our work. By that time, we [are] already in the final round before the time comes for general election,” Nasrudin told The Malaysian Insider.
PAS will hold its annual muktamar from June 9 to 13. The retreat was supposed to be held earlier this month but had to be postponed because of the Sibu by-election.
The party’s Youth wing has been tasked with gathering information to be tabled during the retreat.

Bagan Pinang showed that PAS still was unable to penetrate Umno strongholds. — file pic

Nasrudin, however, refused to disclose the early findings, adding that all research outcomes would be presented to the central leadership. PAS and its partners in Pakatan Rakyat (PR) have not been able to make significant inroads into the Umno-controlled Malay heartland.
The Islamist party lost badly in the Bagan Pinang by-election late last year. The Negri Sembilan state constituency was approximately 66 per cent Malay.
In Hulu Selangor PR, through PKR candidate Datuk Zaid Ibrahim, lost in the by-election due to the party’s failure to win the rural Malay votes in the constituency despite increasing the support levels in the Chinese-majority town centre.
The campaign in the Malay-majority semi-rural Hulu Selangor was led by PAS leaders, including its spiritual advisor, Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, who made last minute visits in the constituency’s Felda settlements.
In the Sibu by-election last weekend, the party helped DAP in the campaign in Muslim majority areas, which were strongholds of Sarawak’s Malay/Melanau party, PBB, but failed to make significant inroads.
Apart from the challenge of breaking Umno’s monopoly of the rural Malay vote, PR was also competing against Malay rights group, Perkasa, led by Datuk Ibrahim Ali and which has been gaining popularity since its inception in 2008.
“In trying to win the Malay votes, it does not mean we will be trapped into fanning racial sentiments. Our aim is increase the Malay support but at the same time we will make sure that we will not lose the non-Malay support,” said Nasrudin, who added that PAS would not violate PR’s common policy framework in its drive to win the Malay votes. - The Malaysian Insider

Ilham Centre: Pengundi Melayu ramal BN menang

Apr 23, 10 5:31pm

Kaji selidik terbaru yang dijalankan oleh Ilham Centre mendapati pengundi Melayu berpendapat Barisan Nasional akan memenangi pilihan raya kecil Hulu Selangor, Ahad ini.

Hampir 40 peratus dari keseluruhan responden yang ditinjau meramalkan kemenangan berpihak kepada BN manakala hanya 16 peratus yang yakin PKR mampu membuat kejutan.

Namun tinjauan itu juga mendapati kebanyakkan pengundi masih belum dapat menyatakan pendirian dan menjangkakan pertembungan sengit.

BN dikatakan masih mendahului PKR di beberapa kawasan luar bandar dan pedalaman terutama di kawasan atau kampung majoriti Melayu , termasuk di Felda.

Namun begitu, pola sokongan dan trend pengundian seakan berpihak kepada Pakatan Rakyat-PKR terutama di lokaliti bandar dan di kalangan pengundi muda.

Prestasi cemerlang pentadbiran kerajaan negeri Selangor di bawah Pakatan Rakyat dilihat juga memberi kesan kepada keputusan pengundi pada Ahad ini.

Bancian itu juga mendapati lebih 34 peratus pengundi Melayu menganggap dasar kebajikan baru yang diperkenalkan dan diberikan oleh kerajaan Selangor amat penting bagi mereka serta sangat wajar diteruskan.

Antrara program itu termasuk projek Usia Emas, Tawas, pemberian air percuma.

Calon PKR, Datuk Zaid Ibrahim, bagaimanapun dikatakan masih mempunyai peluang untuk menang tetapi berdepan dengan laluan yang sukar kerana diserang secara peribadi.

Namun begitu, lebih 50 peratus daripada responden tidak bersetuju dengan kempen yang berbentuk serangan peribadi dan bersifat provokatif pada pilihan raya kali ini.

Mereka menganggap kempen BN kali ini dianggap terdesak.

Sebanyak 36 peratus pengundi Melayu itu juga tidak bersetuju dan berpandangan bahawa penggunaan agensi-agensi kerajaan persekutuan dan negeri dalam pilihan raya adalah tidak wajar manakala 29.5 peratus yang bersetuju.

Selain itu, menurut bancian itu, kemenangan Zaid sangat bergantung kepada keupayaan dan keberkesanan jentera parti PKR sendiri.

Sokongan kepada BN dilihat ketara di kawasan luar bandar terutama Felda dan kampung Melayu adalah disebabkan oleh keupayaan jentera BN beroperasi serta bergerak kerja.